MLB Trade Rumors: Boston Red Sox Need Justin Masterson

Photo Credit: Boston Herald

It is no secret that the Boston Red Sox are a team in transition.

After posting their worst season in 47 years with a record of 69-93 and finishing last in the American League East for the first time since 1992, when they finished in 7th place, a change is imminent.

Thanks in large part is due to the Los Angeles Dodgers for alleviating a swelled payroll of bad contracts.

From the blockbuster mid-season trade, the Red Sox now have considerable capital to spend should they choose to do so.

Obviously the hope is that they spend wisely.

The biggest issue facing the free agent market for the Red Sox is the scarcity of players available to fit the team needs accordingly.

The team is in need of a starting pitcher, first baseman and corner outfielders. There is also uncertainty at the shortstop position once again. (Shocking, I know.)

For the first time since making the trade for Adrian Gonzalez back in the winter of 2010, the Red Sox have considerable depth in their farm system. They should use some of that depth to bring Justin Masterson back to Boston from the Cleveland Indians.

In 67 games for the Red Sox, Masterson posted a 9-8 record with a 3.76 ERA and a 1.279 WHIP. A majority of his appearances came out of the bullpen as he made only 15 starts while throwing for 160.1 innings.

For the Cleveland Indians, Masterson has been utilized as a starter and has transitioned well into the full-time role. In 106 starts he owns a career 30-45 record with a 4.27 ERA and a 1.420 WHIP in 659.2 innings pitched.

More important than his numbers in Cleveland is the fact that Masterson would be reunited with John Farrell, who was his pitching coach in Boston.

In his career pitching at Fenway Park, Masterson owns a  10-3 record in 39 games with 11 starts. He owns a 3.90 ERA with a 1.258 WHIP in 99.1 innings pitched and a nice 7.8 K/9 ratio.

Against American League East Opponents he is 13-14 with a 4.51 ERA in 47 career games, 27 starts and 190 innings pitched with posting a 1.434 WHIP and a 6.9 K/9 ratio.

However, looking at the aforementioned figures, the Tampa Bay Rays are the only team in the AL that has had his number. He is just 1-7 against the Rays with a 7.74 ERA and a 1.968 WHIP in 13 games and nine starts.

If we were to look at just his figures against the Baltimore Orioles, New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays, Masterson is 12-7 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.255 WHIP.

Masterson is under team control until the 2015 season. Adding another proven, quality arm to the rotation at a low cost is exactly the type of move the Red Sox need to do right now.

Matt Garza to the Boston Red Sox Could Happen... Soon

According to MLB Trade Rumors, Matt Garza trade talks are beginning to heat up with three key players in the mix. It is believed that the Red Sox, Yankees andBlue Jays are all trying to acquire Garza from the Chicago Cubs to help bolster their respective starting rotations for 2012.

One of those teams has a slight edge: The Boston Red Sox.

Now, when I say slight, I do mean slight. Compensation has never been finalized for Theo Epstein leaving the Boston Red Sox to join the Chicago Cubs as their President of Baseball Operations. While it is appears to be minimal at this point, it is a matter that needs to be cleared up.

What could transpire in the coming hours and days might actually be a big trade. The Red Sox need another starting pitcher, the Cubs have been relatively quiet and could look to shake things up a little bit before the start of the season.

This is where trading Garza to the Red Sox could make a lot of sense.

While Garza's name has been whirling around the trade rumor winds pretty much since the 2011 season ended, the Red Sox have also had a player who's name has been floating around: Kevin Youkilis. Back on December 8th, I wrote how the Cubs would make for a great trade partner for Youk. That move didn't even whisper the name Garza.

Now, with the Sox possibly close to acquiring, definitely trying to acquire Garza, it is a good time to revisit that basic framework of a deal. Even though Cubs President Theo Epstein is on record as stating that Garza is "exactly type of pitcher we want to build around" those of us in Boston have learned to read between the lines of Theo's rhetoric.

So, to be clear, the pieces that would come to the Red Sox would be Matt Garza and Jeff Baker. The corner stone of a deal with the Cubs would begin with Kevin Youkilis and would probably require young pitching in the form of Anthony Ranaudo and/or Matt Barnes as well as another prospect, potentially in the form of a fielder. Perhaps Garin Cecchini, the 20-year-old 3B prospect (who is considered 12th overall in the Red Sox farm system.)In my previous piece, I threw around the idea of trading Youk to Chicago for a player like Jeff Baker and prospects. Baker has the potential to be a .270/.322/.436 player with a .984 fielding percentage. He would be serviceable while keeping the seat warm for Will Middlebrooks.

It may be a stretch, but in the arms race, it can't hurt to have a leg up on the competition. Furthermore, it is hard to imagine former Red Sox GM Theo Epstein and current GM Ben Cherington not examining any trade possibilities that could strengthen both teams.

MLB Trade Rumors: Red Sox Look to Trade with A's for Andrew Bailey

While many MLB trade rumors are floating around baseball's winter meetings,Red Sox fans and A's fans have been paying attention to the rumblings of a possibleAndrew Bailey to Boston trade in the works.

According to Peter Abraham, the Sox and A's are engaged in discussions that would bring Andrew Bailey to Boston in exchange for outfielder Josh Reddick.

While the Red Sox showed interest in acquiring Colorado Rockies closer Huston Street, the Rockies ended up dealing Street to the Padres in exchange for a player to be named later. This resulted in yet another viable closer coming off of the white board for the Red Sox, only intensifying their trade talks with the A's.

For the A's, this move would make a lot of sense. As we all have learned either from reading the book or seeing the film Moneyball, General Manager Billy Beane and company run their team on a tight budget. Bailey was the 2009 American League Rookie of the Year and is arbitration eligible for the first time in his young career. It is expected that he will earn $3.3 million in 2012, a number that the A's likely are not comfortable paying, even for a 27-year-old two-time All-Star.

Bailey, while coming off of his worst season to date, still has a career ERA of 2.07 with a WHIP of 0.954; very attractive numbers to see in a closer.

The trade would make sense for the Red Sox as well. Oakland has a depleted outfield as constituted. David Dejesus has already signed with the Chicago Cubs, and both Coco Crisp and Josh Willingham are free agents. A player like Reddick would make perfect sense for Oakland's system.

Reddick is only 24 years old, not arbitration eligible until 2014 and only made $400k in 2011.

It is likely that this rumor is incomplete, as a trade for Bailey would likely require more compensation than just Josh Reddick. Initial reports had the A's asking for third base prospect Will Middlebrooks as part of the package. That, however, would likely be a deal breaker for the Red Sox, as they view Middlebrooks as their top prospect and third baseman of the future.

If a deal can be hammered out between the two sides, it certainly would be a beneficial move for both organizations. The Red Sox would solve their problem at closer while the A's would have at the very least one solid outfielder in line for the 2012 season.

David Ortiz May DH Somewhere Not Named Boston

David Ortiz has been offered salary arbitration by the Boston Red Sox and he has yet to accept it.

Ortiz has until the December 7th deadline to accept the Sox offer and accept essentially a one-year deal to remain in Boston as the DH. He would likely be making roughly $14million next year, but the deal is not a guaranteed contract.

This could be cause for concern to Ortiz and his agent.

At the start of the 2009 season Ortiz was awful in the months of April and May. He did not hit his first home run of the season until May 20th against Toronto, at which point he was only batting .210 with a .319 OBP. He finished the season only batting .238 but did manage 28 home runs and 99 RBI's with an OPS of .794 (his lowest ever as a full time player.)

2010 started no different than 2009. While he managed to homer much earlier in this season (April 23rd to be exact) his bat was still a major concern. His batting average at the end of April was a dreadful .143 with an OPS of .524. Once again, he did rebound to have a fine statistical season, but in an arbitration year, he may not get a full season to turn things around.

Both years he was under contract, therefore his money was guaranteed. In an arbitration year, slow starts like in 2009 or 2010 could mean that the Red Sox would entertain the idea of cutting ties with Ortiz and have no obligation to pay him the salary.

Ortiz appears hesitant to sign the arbitration offer because he is currently seeking a 3-year deal. I doubt he is going to find that offer in Boston.

There are a few teams that come to mind that may want to utilize Ortiz's service for the next three seasons, but you have to look at the field of suitors and potential landing spots objectively. First of all, every NL team is out of the running.

David Ortiz won't be playing first base any time soon.

His talent is hitting, and only hitting, so wipe 15 teams out of contention. Now comes the issue of money; who can afford David Ortiz? The A's, the Indians, the Twins and Rays all can be counted out of the running, unless he opted for a pay cut. That narrows the field down to 11 possible suitors.

What teams are in need of a DH? You can count out the Yankees, as they have Alex Rodriguez pretty much primed to be the DH, if Jeter doesn't get the job first. The White Sox locked up Adam Dunn to fulfill that role for them. Boston has made it clear they have no interest in bringing him back for 3 seasons. So where is the need?

There are three teams that I believe could be serious suitors for Ortiz.

First, the Toronto Blue Jays have been rumored to have interest in Prince Fielder. I'm not so certain they can afford Fielder, but they are looking to add some offensive protection in the lineup behind Jose Bautista. Ortiz is historically known to be a clubhouse guy and would bring a nice veteran presence to the young Blue Jay squad. He would literally double the production the Jays are getting from their current DH, Edwin Encarnacion as well.

Encarnacion is a career .260 hitter with a .336 OBP, .453 SLG and .789 OPS. Over the past 3 seasons he has homered 13, 21, & 17 times respectively while driving in 39, 51 and 55 runs. For comparison sake, Ortiz is a career .283 hitter with a .378 OBP, .544 SLG and a .922 OPS. Over the past three seasons, he has homered 28, 32, and 29 times respectively while driving in 99, 102, and 96 runs.

Next up is the Baltimore Orioles, a team that I think is more likely to land Ortiz than many think. Having just signed Dan Duquette as their new general manager, I see the O's making a little noise. They are geared up with a young team with a stud catcher, a new/old logo back and in need of some star power to give the team a shot in the arm. Duquette is no stranger to making big signings or acquiring top tier talent (see Manny Ramierez, Pedro Martinez) and that brashness will pay off for him in Baltimore.

While the Orioles are realistically more than just one big signing away from being in the hunt for a World Series, it would be a step for them. This would be a spark to make them more competitive and help to even out the landscape in the harsh American League East.

Lastly, the Seattle Mariners could prove to be a dark horse in the David Ortiz courtship. Here is the deal with Seattle, they have excellent starting pitching, pretty good players on the roster, but they have no significant offensive threats on the team.

The Mariners are another team that has been rumored to have significant interest in Prince Fielder, and they have the cash to sign him. From what I have read on various websites, the Mariners want Prince to DH and not play first, opting to keep Justin Smoak there.

From what I've read, Prince wants to play first base, not DH.

This is why Ortiz would make perfect sense for the Mariners. They would get the slugger they are looking for at the position they are looking for, presumably for considerably less money than what they initially thought they would spend. Locking Ortiz up for those three years would allow the team to build up around him and develop some of their younger talent further, like Justin Smoak.

So Boston fans, don't be surprised to see another Red Sox favorite donning another teams laundry in 2012.

Meet Yoennis Céspedes: The Next Great Cuban Born Major Leaguer

By now you undoubtedly have heard the name Yoenis Céspedes. The Cuban sensation has been drawing interest from several Major League clubs including the Yankees, The Tigers, the Nationals and the Boston Red Sox.

What is all the fuss about? Let me tell you.

First of all, according to baseballprospectus.com's Kevin Goldstein, Céspedes is "arguably the best all-around player to come out of Cuba in a generation." That is quite a feat considering there has been several very good baseball players to come from Cuba, such as Yuniesky Bettencourt, Aroldis Chapman and Alexei Ramirez to name a few.

Early scouting reports state that Céspedes is a five-tool baseball player. He is listed as 26 years old, stands 6ft tall and weighs 215lbs. In other words, he sounds physically like a baseball player primed to enter the heart of his playing career.

So what has he done to garner all this attention? The first thing that stands out to me is his power. In the 2010-2011 season, playing for Cuba's premier baseball league, the Serie Nacional,

Céspedes broke the single season home run record, belting 33 long balls in just 90 games. One home run every 2.73 games, translated into Major League terms could mean the man is capable of hitting damn near 60 homers in the course of a season. Sure that is a stretch, but on average, it could happen.

It is not just his power that is impressive though. In the same season that he managed to put up the power numbers, he batted .333 with an OBP of .424 and a SLG of .667. That is quite impressive. Granted, it is against other Cuban players and not against heavy competition as he would see in in the majors, but damn good nonetheless.

As for speed, in the 2010-11 season he stole 11 bags on 14 attempts. Keep in mind again, this is in a 90 game season. By all accounts the man is fast. His range in the outfield is impressive.

Monetarily, it is rumored that Céspedes is looking to acquire a contract in the $60million range for 8-years. Are you hearing this Boston fans? That is only $7.5million per season, a little more than half of what was just shelled out for J.D. Drew and by all accounts, Céspedes will be twice the player.

I am very intrigued to see which Major League team will take a bite at this man. While we can't really be too sure as to how the man will pan out, I'll leave you with this, his 20-minute promo video put out by Céspedes to showcase his talents. I'll give him this, the film is interesting, and yet reminds me of Eastbound and Down when Kenny Powers makes his comeback video.

Enjoy!

Ortiz Should Be Praying for Arbitration

There is a chance that David Ortiz could be back in Boston next season.

The Red Sox have until midnight tomorrow night to offer the slugger arbitration for the 2012 season, which would make David Ortiz mighty wealthy for one season's worth of work. As it stands, Ortiz would make in the area of $14million if he accepted the Sox arbitration offer to bring him back.

The plus side of the equation for Ortiz is that he will be making significant money to do what he has been doing well for so many years in Boston. The down side to accepting arbitration is the fact that the money he would be making is not guaranteed.

This could be cause for concern to Ortiz and his agent.

Let's look back to the 2009 season. Ortiz started off abysmally in April and May. He did not hit his first home run of the season until May 20th against Toronto, at which point he was only batting .210 with a .319 OBP. He finished the season only batting .238 but did manage 28 home runs and 99 RBI's with an OPS of .794 (his lowest ever as a full time player.)

In 2010, his April was as painful to watch as in 2009. While he managed to homer much earlier in this season (April 23rd to be exact) his bat was still a major concern. His batting average at the end of April was a dreadful .143 with an OPS of .524. Once again, he did rebound to have a fine statistical season, but in an arbitration year, he may not get a full season to turn things around.

Both years he was under contract, therefore his money was guaranteed. In an arbitration year, slow starts like in 2009 or 2010 could mean that the Red Sox would entertain the idea of cutting ties with Ortiz and have no obligation to pay him the salary.

On the other hand, if Ortiz opted not to accept arbitration, he likely could find another offer on the market in the 2-year, $14million ballpark. This offer could come from the Red Sox, but if he declines the arbitration I could see the Sox low-balling him with a 2-year deal in the $10million range. In the event he decided to walk away from the Red Sox, he is still considered to be a type-A free agent in the new collective bargaining agreement, so Boston would gladly accept the 2 draft picks that would come in his place.

They then would find another DH in that same $10million range and be quite content.

Though I have made it clear in the past that I believe it is time for the Red Sox to move on from David Ortiz, I do think that it would make sense for both parts to be active in getting an arbitration deal done. While it is more money than what I think Ortiz is worth for a one-year deal, it would be a nice compromise in that the Red Sox could keep him on the roster on a year-to-year basis with no fully vested monetary commitment should his statistics falter.

Valentine's Day for Red Sox?

It is being widely reported that Bobby Valentine will meet with the General Manager of the Boston Red Sox, Ben Cherington, today to discuss the managerial vacancy at Fenway.

It seems a bit unfortunate that Cherington is the last of the front office to interview Valentine; considering the fact that he has already met with Henry, Warner and Lucchino. This meeting seems arbitrary, with the assumption that the job is already Valentines and the meeting with Cherington looks to be for appearances.

This is the same goofy Bobby Valentine that was ejected from a Mets game, only to come back into the dugout in disguise in order to try and be a part of the rest of the game. No, he will never live that down.

This is the same Bobby Valentine that was fired by the Mets in 2002 after finishing 75-86 with a star studded team that included future Hall of Fame member Roberto Alomar, along side stars Mike Piazza, Mo Vaughn and Jeremy Burnitz. This was a team whose chief problem was laziness and motivation. That sounds awfully familiar Sox fans, doesn't it?

It is no secret that Bobby Valentine is a Larry Lucchino guy. Valentine has gone on record to say that his relationship with Lucchino is so, he would consider calling him a friend. That sounds awfully convenient to me. It also sounds like Cherington was set up to fail in his search for a new manager for the club.

I don't want to spend the entire article bashing Valentine. Obviously there is some merit to him being considered for the position, even if I'm not particularly fond of the idea.

Valentine did see significant success with the New York Mets in 1999 and 2000. Both seasons he managed the team to over 90 wins (97 in '99, 94 in '00) and made it to the World Series in 2000. He was a very good manager for the Mets in 1997 and 1998, recording 88 wins each of those seasons after taking over the club in 1996. His progress was significant, until the World Series loss, the team seemed to just slip away from him.

While many consider him to be a system guy that can relate to players, I seem him as a .500 manager. In fact, he only posts a .510 winning percentage in his 15 years managing in Major League Baseball.

Bringing Valentine in is, in my mind, a short term solution. The man is 61 and by just looking at his numbers, a decent manager. This is not a long-term solution by any means.

Perhaps the Red Sox are bringing in a guy like Valentine because they know what to expect from him. Perhaps this is just a move to keep the seat warm for a full-court press at Joe Maddon (whose contract is up after 2012) OR John Farrell, when he becomes available.

I have no idea what the brass is thinking here. What I do know is that the fan base is starting to get restless and are certainly tired of the beloved Red Sox being a laughing stock in the eyes of the rest of the league. Enough toying around, let's start getting some business done.

Red Sox Notes: The Good, The Bad & The Ugly

It appears as though the Red Sox have been making minor headlines in the past 24 hours, here is a look at a handful of notes to satiate the appetite of the Nation.

THE GOOD.

By all accounts, it appears as though the Sox are going to try and address their pitching issues. According to Alex Speier on WEEI.com, the Red Sox met with agent Bob Garber last evening in Milwaukee. Garber represents free agent right-hander Roy Oswalt and left hander C.J. Wilson.

Many have thought that Oswalt would be an instant fit in Boston for the past several seasons. I, for one, would love to see the man come to town. Oswalt would bring with him a career 3.21 ERA and 1.194 WHIP. You could make the argument that since Oswalt has only ever pitched in the NL, his ERA would jump a whole point in his first season in the AL - but would a 4.21 ERA be that bad as a 4 or 5 starter? That is exactly what he would be in a rotation that includes Beckett, Lester and Buchholz at the front of it.

C.J. Wilson is another interesting candidate. Though I think he is a great pitcher, I don't think he would be more than 3rd in your pitching depth chart in Boston. I also fear for how he would react to the pressure that Boston puts on players. He has a career ERA of 3.60 and a WHIP of 1.291, all while playing in the American League.

A case can be made in favor of Wilson in the AL East though. Looking at his splits, he has faced the Yankees 1 time. In that game the Yanks batted .250 against him with a .364 OBP and only a .649 OPS. Wilson faced the Blue Jays once, they hit .412 with a .500 OBP and a 1.206 OPS. He has faced the Red Sox twice. The Sox batted .217 with a .280 OBP and a .541 OPS. He faced the Rays 3 times. They managed a .147 batting average with a .247 OBP and a .526 OPS. In other words, in his 7 games against the AL East, teams batted .256 against him with a .348 OBP and a .730 OPS, largely thanks to the offense provided by the Blue Jays. It appears he could handle his own, who knows?

THE BAD.

Looks like the Red Sox will not be landing the manager many thought would take the place of Terry Francona. The Boston Globe, Boston Herald, ESPN Boston and WEEI are all reporting that Dale Sveum is close to signing with the Chicago Cubs to be their new manager. This throws a kink in the plans of Ben Cherington and Co.

While I was never on board with bringing in Sveum, I was on board with getting a manager in place and allowing this team to move forward. It appears as though there will be a delay in that happening.

From what I have been hearing, Pete Mackanin is out of the race. That leaves Sandy Alomar, Jr., Torey Lovullo and Gene Lamont as the three remaining previously interviewed candidates. In my opinion, Lovullo would then be the clear leader in the clubhouse, but I have been wrong before. Though I would still love to see Ryne Sandberg or Dave Martinez, I think this is Lovullo's job to lose.

THE UGLY (Part 1.)

This is part truth and part speculation. The truth is that the Red Sox have made an offer to David Ortiz. After the offer was extended, Ortiz made it public that he would be willing to allow any other offers made to him to be matched by the Red Sox.

My speculation: Ortiz is not at all happy with the offer the Sox gave him. If you are in the "bring Ortiz back" camp - this may be ugly for you, as he may not be back.

THE UGLY (Part 2.)

Heidi Watney is leaving NESN for a new position with Time-Warner Cable, working for the Lakers. Watney will be missed.

Papelbon is Gone, Time to Fill Some Shoes

Jonathan Papelbon stopped the revolving door of closers in Boston from 2006 through 2011.

During that time frame he managed to rack up 219 saves for the Red Sox. That number obliterates the previous record of saves (132) held by Bob Stanley.

Guess what Boston? That era is over. Time to move on. Time to get going. I've seen a fair amount of people that were upset to see Papelbon go, but on the other hand I have seen far too many people that are actually glad to see him go.

Really? After all the man has done for this town people are already happy he's gone? Let's look back a few weeks and remember, Jonathan Papelbon was one of the good guys in this clubhouse in 2011. He was respectful, accountable, and didn't imbibe in beer and fried chicken.

Having said that, his departure is of no surprise to me. Since my first post regarding the future of the Boston Red Sox I have felt that Papelbon would indeed move on. Of course, we all were aware that he wanted to try and set the market for closers (which he did) and make some big bucks. He never wavered from those intentions. He played it year to year in Boston, getting his money through arbitration. He did exactly what he said he was going to do.

I respect him for that.

The other hard point to make is this: even if the Red Sox were to offer him the same exact contract that the Phillies offered him, Jonathan Papelbon would have left anyway. Not because he didn't like it in Boston. Not because he doesn't like the fans. He would have left because of the mess that is going on here, and not one person can really blame him. He held his stuff together while the team crumbled. He's won a ring here, it was his chance to move on.

I have already made my case for Heath Bell coming in as the next closer for the Red Sox. Since that post I have heard a few objections that I find to be noteworthy. I want to also examine a few other options and arguments that have emerged in light of Papelbon's departure.

First of all, there have been concerns about Heath Bell performing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. This is true. Petco is HUGE. I did Bell a bit of an injustice by not examining his splits accordingly while making my argument for him. Shame on me.

There are other names being floated as potential replacements for Pap. The other three that I personally am hearing the most about are: Daniel Bard, Ryan Madson, and Joe Nathan. The lot of potential replacements actually embody four different routes the Red Sox could take in both structure and progress. Allow me to explain.

Daniel Bard is the player that many thought would just step in when Papelbon left and become the next closer for the Sox. Though I think he is a hell of a pitcher, I think he proved at the end of the 2011 season that he is either a) not ready to be the closer or b) is more suited to be a starting pitcher. I think the answer is b. Though Bard has been working to develop a third pitch, people still believe he could close for the Red Sox. He is the cheapest option and would allow them to set their free agent focus towards other issues. However, 2011 brought forth Bard's career high 5 saves. He's not ready, I promise you this. Thrusting him into the role of closer after how the 2011 season ended will not be a wise move, even if he only makes $500k per season.

Heath Bell makes the most sense. Just read my previous article "For Whom Heath Bell Tolls" for the complete argument, but I want to supplement a couple of points. Looking at his splits for the 2011 season, Bell had a slightly higher ERA on the road (2.15 vs 2.88) but had a lower WHIP (1.195 vs 1.080.) This tells me that though he allowed fewer runners on base on the road, slightly more were apt to score than at home.

The irony is, Papelbon was the exact opposite as a pitcher here. His home ERA was 3.16 while his away ERA was 2.73. His WHIP at home was .957 vs .909 away. Papelbon had a tougher time pitching in Fenway than he did away. It is also worth mentioning that Bell actually closed out a higher percentage of games away from Petco than at home (26 of 27 games away, 28 of 37 games at home.) It is fair to say that Bell's numbers come from his road victories and would be a fairly affordable option for the next 2-3 years.

Ryan Madson is basically Jonathan Papelbon 2.0. The problem with Madson, like Bard, is his lack of experience. The Phillies wisely reneged on their 4 year $44million offer to Madson after realizing he had only closed for 1 full season, racking up 32 saves. He benefited greatly from having Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee in the starting rotation. His home ERA was crazy good: 1.64, while on the road it almost doubled to 3.25. That is a HUGE jump.

Madson's WHIP is also indicative of the luxuries brought forth pitching at home. He posted a 1.121 vs a 1.193 on the road. The Phillies brass realized that 2011 was a solid year for him, but teams will catch on and he could really be exposed in 2012 and beyond. Better to save the money on him and offer it to a player that has proven his abilities over the past several years to perform in a pressure cooker.

Joe Nathan is the last name being floated around and to me, for comical reasons. I've heard the argument that the Red Sox do not want to spend a lot of money on a closer, so they would try to land Nathan on a 1-year deal. Really? The people saying this obviously aren't aware that Nathan earned $12.5million in 2011 and has the cache' to cash in. With 269 career saves, Nathan could easily ask for - and receive - $12million and multiple years, yet people think that the Sox could potential woo him for just one season... at age 36... looking for one last pay day?

The reality is, the argument I have made for Heath Bell previously is still the strongest argument for any closer out there. Would you rather see the Red Sox rest on their laurels and roll out Daniel Bard/Bobby Jenks as your closing committee in 2012, or would you rather have a bonified, high-intensity guy like Bell come in and handle the business in the 9th inning?

Take a deep breath, Boston. As Bob Marley said, everything's gonna be alright.

Are the Red Sox Interested in Beltran... as a DH?

I keep reading about how the Boston Red Sox are "favorites" to land Carlos Beltran.

There seems to be a large number of people that believe that Beltran would be a fit for Boston and that he could solve their right field issues. After all, he is a switch hitting, high OPS guy with plus power. What is there not to like about him?

The Red Sox lineup is filled with left handed batters and Beltran would offer the option of batting from either side of the plate. His splits are not too different regardless of which side of the plate he bats from (slight edge to the left side of the plate.) He is a 3 time gold glove winner, 6 time all-star, won the rookie of the year in 1999 and has a couple of silver slugger awards on his resume. In other words, the man is a well decorated outfielder.

Here's the catch, he's 34 years old and is coming off his first healthy season in 3 years. He is a bit of an injury concern if he is playing the outfield on a daily basis.

But what if he isn't?

From what I am hearing the Red Sox have an idea on what David Ortiz's market value is. Though GM Ben Cherington has alluded to ongoing conversations with Ortiz, one would think that the sides are at odds in either compensation or years. The fact of the matter is, Ortiz is 35 years old and can DH, that's it.

It is true that in 2011 Ortiz had another fine season. He played in 146 games, knocked in 29 home runs, scored 84 runs, knocked in 96 while batting .309. His on-base percentage was .398 and his slugging percentage was .554, giving a fantastic OPS of .953. This was accomplished for $12.5million and again, he only DH'd.

Carlos Beltran on the other hand also had a fine season. He played in 142 games, knocked in 22 home runs, scored 78 runs, drove in 84 while batting an even .300. His on-base percentage was .385 while his slugging percentage was .525 giving him an OPS of .910. True, he made $19.3million in 2011, but it was the final year on a lucrative contract he signed back in 2005.

I don't believe Carlos Beltran is looking to "cash in" once again, as I think he is smart enough to know that he doesn't merit another large contract after 3 of the last 4 seasons were injury plagued. What he showed in 2011 is that he still has the ability to play baseball every day and perform well.

I believe Beltran will be looking for the same type of contract that David Ortiz is looking for, both in monetary value as well as years. Though I have heard some ludicrous claims that Beltran will be looking for $18million annually, which, will never happen, I think he is probably in the $12-14million range, right about where Ortiz is now.

The question that begs to be answered by the Red Sox brass is: Are the Red Sox in on Beltran to replace David Ortiz with a more rounded player? Beltran played for six and a half years in New York for the Mets and performed admirably. He was then thrust into a playoff rush in San Francisco where he absolutely crushed it in 44 games batting .323, with an OBP of .369 and a SLG of .551 for an OPS of .920.

I could see the Sox pulling the trigger on Beltran and letting Ortiz walk. This organization needs a bit of a face lift, and sadly that could mean the end of Ortiz's stay in Boston.

Andre Ethier: Fodder for Thought

Even a rational Red Sox fan has his white whale. Listen, over the past few months I have given up my personal pipe dream of a Hanley Ramirez reunion with the Red Sox and in his place I have developed a strong liking for Los Angeles Dodgers right fielder, Andre Ethier.

Here's the kicker though - as much as I acknowledge the fact that Ramirez was never coming back to Boston, there lives a strong possibility that Ethier could come to Boston for the right circumstances. Let's just get a couple of things out of the way, first being that he has publicly stated he would love to end his career with the Arizona Diamondbacks playing with Dustin Pedroia. They played together at Arizona State University and are friends. It is a nice gesture.

Secondly, over the summer Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman wrote an article on Ethier and his displeasure with the Dodgers, stating that he (Ethier) had "Boston in his mind."

This reminds me a lot of the whole Jarred Saltalamacchia thing back when he was with Texas. There were trade rumors that Boston was interested and Salty went on record stating he would love to play here. Fast forward three years and we finally landed him.

The stars could potentially be lining up for an Ethier-to-Boston type of move. Frank McCourt has agreed to sell the Dodgers. This could actually hurt the potential of Ethier coming to Boston. His displeasure with the team stemmed directly back to ownership. However, the Dodgers have taken measures to have suitable replacements for their right fielder (Juan Riveira, Jerry Sands, Tony Gwynn Jr. to name a few.)

There has been rumblings that the team has been looking to move on from James Loney as well, their first baseman. Depending on what the Dodgers view as needs, the Red Sox do have several options they could offer up for Ethier to make a deal work. In my quick glance at the team, the Dodgers have needs in the middle infield as well as possibly the outfield. This could, COULD be a scenario where the Red Sox could base a package around a Jed Lowrie/Ryan Kalish or Josh Reddick deal. The Dodgers ownership might be looking to cut back on some spending while beefing up their offense. A move based in that foundation could be the start of a legitimate trade conversation.

However, on the flip side, the new Dodgers ownership might want to come in with guns blazing. For example, if Mark Cuban buys the team, he could address the needs by adding Pujols, Reyes and C.J. Wilson for the fun of it.

As I stated before, this could be just another pipe dream of mine, but it looks like there is a basis for a conversation to be had. For those unaware - Ethier is only 29. He hits in the .300 range consistently, can average 80 RBI's and 20 home runs and has a career OPS of .843; in other words, he's just the type of player the Red Sox like in right.

SOX: Go Get One of These Pitchers

Baseball has become a young man's game, has it not? It seems as though with the passing of the steroid era older players are less and less dominant in the game as they were a few short years ago.

Look back 10 years ago, 2001. Who were the all-stars of the game? Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Rafael Palmeiro, Manny Ramirez... you get the point. All of the names heading up any of the lists you see there were largely names that had been in the game for awhile. There were exceptions, as there always is, but you seldom saw young men taking over the league.

Fast forward to 2011 and just look at the teams that remain in the League Championship Series. Milwaukee is almost exclusively 20-somethings. The same can be said for Texas. In the playoffs you had a very young Arizona Diamondback team as well. The league is obviously getting younger and though the big market teams (New York, Boston, Chicago etc.) want to go out and overspend for the players that were viable in their 20's, they just are not as durable as ownership's want to believe.

I started thinking about the age of the Boston Red Sox and considered that pitching was a major concern last season. Going into 2012 the team certainly has a lot of question marks. As I mentioned in my previous post, they should explore trades and signings, just not stupid trades or signings. I developed my own little stat sheet and analyzed 3 of my favorite pitchers of all time: Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens and Pedro Martinez. Before you get on me about the fact that all three of these guys pitched for a long time and Clemens was a "steroid guy" allow me to explain myself.

What I did was look at the first five full seasons that each player was in baseball. I then looked at 4 very specific statistics: ERA, Games Started, Innings Pitched and WHIP. Why did I select these particular stats? First of all, ERA and WHIP really tell you the quality of stuff a pitcher is dealing out there. Is he really pounding the cheese or is he just throwing crap? The number of games started and innings pitched I believe to be a testament as to the durability of a pitcher. You want to look at a guy that has the capability of throwing for 200 innings, but doesn't necessarily need to do so. Having said that, I broke down my research into three main categories, my Ryan, Clemens and Martinez columns. From that, I found 5 pitchers that I think could both perform well in Boston, but also be horses in this rotation for 5 or more seasons.

The Nolan Ryan Club

1. Jaime Garcia from the St. Louis Cardinals: First things first, Garcia is only 24 years old. He is signed through the end of the 2011 season for only $437,000. He is concluding his 3rd major league season and has a 3.27 career ERA over 374.1 innings pitched. In that time he has started 61 of the 70 games he has appeared in. His career WHIP is 1.321. As always with young pitching, the question is, why would the Cardinals want to give him up? I think, realistically, the only shot we have of obtaining Garcia is if Albert Pujols walks. If he does, the Red Sox could use Kevin Youkilis as a trade chip (eating some of Youk's team friendly salary if need be.) I'm sure I could come up with other scenarios, but that's not my job.

2. Gio Gonzalez from the Oakland A's: Oakland is like a factory for amazing starting pitching. Billy Beane and company just know what the deal really is. This is a huge factor when looking at Gio Gonzalez. The guy is 26 years old with 4 years of major league experience. He posts a career ERA of 3.93 in 535.1 innings pitched. He has started 89 of the 95 games he has appeared in and has a WHIP of 1.410. True - he is in a pitchers ballpark. Looking at his splits, his away ERA is 4.32 and his WHIP is 1.468. I'm not saying this guy will be front of the rotation pitcher, but he's got good stuff and with the right pitching coach, he could be very good.

The Roger Clemens Club

1. Ricky Romero from the Toronto Blue Jays: Of all five of the pitchers I will list, Romero was the only one with a long term deal in place. Tornoto and John Farrell know their stuff when it comes to pitching, so I doubt the guy would be available. First, in the division would be real tough unless we offered up Lester, Buchholz or Ellsbury perhaps, unless GM Alex Anthropoulos is asleep at the wheel and we trade Kalish for him! Anyways, Romero is only 26 as well with 3 major league seasons under his belt. His ERA is 3.60 in 613 innings pitched. He has started all 93 games he has appeared in and offers a 1.302 WHIP. His contract is through 2015 and is a 5-year deal for $30.05million. I don't think the Jays will part with him, but his numbers are impressive.

The Pedro Martinez Club

1. Ian Kennedy from the Arizona Diamondbacks: YES! The same Ian Kennedy that Red Sox nation booed when he pitched for the Yankees. The kid has got his confidence back pitching in Arizona. It is like somebody flicked a switch that said, "You can be an ace in this league." I mean, 21-4 is impressive, but what I am more impressed with is his career numbers, even though he had some rough years in New York. First he is 26 as well and was signed through 2011 at $423k. He has a career ERA of 3.65 (2.88 in 2011) over 475.2 innings pitched. He has started 77 of the 79 games he has appeared in and has a career WHIP of 1.207. First problem: Scott Boras is his agent. He is going to be looking for ridiculous money IF Arizona lets him get away. Kennedy hits the market, he could fill a nice hole in the Sox rotation.

2. Michael Pineda from the Seattle Mariners: It is no secret that I think this kid is legit. He was my early pick for AL Rookie of the Year. He is only 22 years old with 1 season under his belt. His ERA is 3.74 in 28 games, he started all 28. He pitched 171 innings with a WHIP of 1.099. This dude is a beast. The Sox should do whatever it takes to get this man in town. His splits look good. His ERA goes up to 4.40, but his WHIP only goes up to 1.170. There is a ton of potential in this kid.

Thoughts? Opinions? Things better left unsaid?

Firing Squad

1. Terry Francona... gone.

2. Theo Epstein

3. John Lackey

4. JD Drew

5. Marco Scutaro

6. David Ortiz

7. Jason Varitek

8. Josh Beckett

9. Kevin Youkilis

10. Daisuke Matsuzaka

Would anyone really be surprised if the other 9 people I've listed were not on the 2012 Boston Red Sox? JD Drew is easy, he's already checked out. That leaves 8 more names. John Lackey, I can pretty much guarantee he's gone. There is no way that man can show his face in a Red Sox uniform next season.

Kevin Youkilis, apparently is a clubhouse problem. Your fringe MVP, Jacoby Ellsbury can't stand him. Youk is oft-injured and did not look all that comfortable playing third this season. A trade to a team that loses out in the Albert Pujols/Prince Fielder sweepstakes would make a lot of sense. He could go back to being a gold-glove first baseman/DH.

Scutaro, Ortiz and Varitek all have contracts up. If Theo is gone, these guys will definitely be gone. I didn't bother putting Wakefield's mug up there, that SHOULD be a foregone conclusion.

New management will probably want an ace on his staff and Josh Beckett is not that guy. Someone will want him, and he will be dealt; as will Matsuzaka.

I think the question is, what players are "safe" during the winter? It's not that long of a list. Gonzalez, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lester, Buchholz, Saltalamacchia, Lavarnway (just earned that spot in the final week of the season, that's for sure,) I think they will bring back Papelbon, and, dare I say Carl Crawford.

This team is about to go through some major changes. Buckle up.

Oh Boy Pal.

What a night for baseball. We had drama, rain delays, collapses, comebacks... the evening was packed with excitement. At the end of the line, 2 teams that *should* have made the playoffs as of September 1st, did not. 2 teams that were considered to be dead in the water are both now riding some pretty amazing hot streaks. Here I sit, a Sox fan watching OTHER teams play in October. I think I'm okay with that.

Let's start with what happened last night. The Red Sox finalized the single largest collapse any baseball team has seen in the month of September by losing 4-3 to the Orioles after an hour and twenty minute rain delay going in the the 7th inning. The over-used bullpen looked to be holding firm into the 9th. Jonathan Papelbon racked up 2 outs and then gave up 3 hits, 2 doubles and 1 single. The problem was NOT Papelbon. If you watch that inning he hit his location on every pitch but one in that inning. The problem was that somewhere along the line this team just lost its heart.

Travel a few miles south and you find a team that discovered their heart at about the same time the Sox lost theirs. The Tampa Bay Rays were losing 7-0 in the 8th inning against the Yankees. The came ROARING back to tie, take things into extra innings, and in dramatic fashion, see the face of their franchise, Evan (wish he played in Boston) Longoria just barely go yard - to win the Wild Card for the Rays. Amazing finish to an amazing regular season run for the team with about 20 fans in attendance.

Take a look at the National League and the other epic failure: The Atlanta Braves. The Braves should be thankful for the Red Sox this morning, as they hosted an 8.5 game lead over the Cardinals at the start of September. They fell apart in the same fashion the Red Sox did while the Cards came roaring back, much like the Rays did.

What I really like about these playoffs is the fact that I don't feel there are any clear-cut World Series finalists in the lot. You have 8 quality ball clubs vying for 2 open slots in the grandest stage of the grandest game. In the AL - we will see (AL MVP, CY YOUNG WINNER?) Justin Verlander's Detroit Tigers square off against the aging, yet incredibly resilient New York Yankees in New York, while Tampa Bay travels to Texas to face off with the offensive juggernaut Texas Rangers.

In the National League we will see St. Louis ride into Philadelphia for a matchup of the team many consider to be the best in the Majors in 2011, the Philadelphia Phillies, and arguably the NL's hottest team at the moment, the Cardinals. Travel pretty much across the country and the Arizona Diamondbacks will square off with the Milwaukee Brewers. Please, someone show me a single person who figured that it would come down to these 8 teams.

I guess the fun starts here now. Who will take the ALDS and NLDS matchups? Let's not get ahead of ourselves and talk World Series yet, but this is what I am thinking/hoping to see:

ALCS

Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers

NLCS

Philadelphia Philles vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Sox Woes Continue... Hate to Say I Called This

Saturday, July 23, 2011 - I posted a blog stating that the Red Sox need pitching, not Carlos Beltran. In fact, I called for Matt Garza to be brought in and bolster this rotation. At the time, Garza was 4-7 for the Chicago Cubs. His ERA was 3.80 with 110 k's, opponents batting .248 against him and his WHIP was 1.31. The Red Sox took my advice... sort of. They did not acquire Carlos Beltran (thank God) but did acquire Eric Bedard. Eric Bedard? Really?

Since the 23rd of July Matt Garza has won 4 games, dropped 3, now with an 8-10 record. Once again, I must remind you all that this is taking place in Chicago. Since that time, he has managed to bring his ERA down from 3.80 to 3.51. He has added 69 more k's, for a total of 179. Opponents are batting .249 against him and his WHIP is 1.29. Nothing much has changed. He's been a steady, reliable pitcher for the Cubs, kind of what the Red Sox needed to add to their rotation.

Since coming to Boston, Eric Bedard has started 6 games (32 innings) for the Red Sox. His record is 1-2 with a 3.66 ERA. Opponents are hitting .256 against him and his WHIP is 1.38 with 32 k's. There is a key point I would like to make here that reflects directly on the reliability of Bedard. As I just mentioned, he has started 6 games for Boston: a total of 32 innings pitched. That averages out to 5 1/3 innings pitched per outing. Barely getting into the 5th is NOT what the Sox were hoping to get from their pitching staff.

For a completely fair comparison - I neglected to post the 1 game Bedard pitched in Seattle after my July 23rd post and before being traded. He pitched on the 29th for 1.1 innings against Tampa Bay. He gave up 3 hits and 5 runs. I am actually being kind not bringing that into the argument - but it is worth mentioning before I move forward - as this was the last game he played before going on the 15 day DL.

Matt Garza, since July 23rd has started in 11 games. He has pitched 73 innings and that averages out to 6 2/3 innings per outing. Simple deductive reasoning states: deeper into the game means less wear and tear on your bullpen. Less wear and tear means they will be healthier for a longer run. Healthier pitchers for a longer run means more likely to be deeper in the playoffs.

Where do we sit right now? The Red Sox are strapped with injuries, losing their once firm grip on the Wild Card. Their pitching staff is showing signs of age and lack of conditioning. Their farm system is obviously not as deep as it is billed to be. There is plenty of blame to go around and fingers to point if this ship does indeed sink. I think the first finger needs to be pointed at Theo Epstein. His shortsightedness has been a major reason this team is flailing in the wind, hoping to be able to grasp onto the Wild Card. Then, as it stands, they get to run their tired, depleted team into Detroit and get sliced up by (Cy Young, MVP to be) Justin Verlander and Co.

As I stated the other day; the season is not over yet. I do think the Red Sox will manage to win the American League Wild Card; I'm just not sure it will do them any good.