Matt Garza to the Boston Red Sox Could Happen... Soon

According to MLB Trade Rumors, Matt Garza trade talks are beginning to heat up with three key players in the mix. It is believed that the Red Sox, Yankees andBlue Jays are all trying to acquire Garza from the Chicago Cubs to help bolster their respective starting rotations for 2012.

One of those teams has a slight edge: The Boston Red Sox.

Now, when I say slight, I do mean slight. Compensation has never been finalized for Theo Epstein leaving the Boston Red Sox to join the Chicago Cubs as their President of Baseball Operations. While it is appears to be minimal at this point, it is a matter that needs to be cleared up.

What could transpire in the coming hours and days might actually be a big trade. The Red Sox need another starting pitcher, the Cubs have been relatively quiet and could look to shake things up a little bit before the start of the season.

This is where trading Garza to the Red Sox could make a lot of sense.

While Garza's name has been whirling around the trade rumor winds pretty much since the 2011 season ended, the Red Sox have also had a player who's name has been floating around: Kevin Youkilis. Back on December 8th, I wrote how the Cubs would make for a great trade partner for Youk. That move didn't even whisper the name Garza.

Now, with the Sox possibly close to acquiring, definitely trying to acquire Garza, it is a good time to revisit that basic framework of a deal. Even though Cubs President Theo Epstein is on record as stating that Garza is "exactly type of pitcher we want to build around" those of us in Boston have learned to read between the lines of Theo's rhetoric.

So, to be clear, the pieces that would come to the Red Sox would be Matt Garza and Jeff Baker. The corner stone of a deal with the Cubs would begin with Kevin Youkilis and would probably require young pitching in the form of Anthony Ranaudo and/or Matt Barnes as well as another prospect, potentially in the form of a fielder. Perhaps Garin Cecchini, the 20-year-old 3B prospect (who is considered 12th overall in the Red Sox farm system.)In my previous piece, I threw around the idea of trading Youk to Chicago for a player like Jeff Baker and prospects. Baker has the potential to be a .270/.322/.436 player with a .984 fielding percentage. He would be serviceable while keeping the seat warm for Will Middlebrooks.

It may be a stretch, but in the arms race, it can't hurt to have a leg up on the competition. Furthermore, it is hard to imagine former Red Sox GM Theo Epstein and current GM Ben Cherington not examining any trade possibilities that could strengthen both teams.

Sox Woes Continue... Hate to Say I Called This

Saturday, July 23, 2011 - I posted a blog stating that the Red Sox need pitching, not Carlos Beltran. In fact, I called for Matt Garza to be brought in and bolster this rotation. At the time, Garza was 4-7 for the Chicago Cubs. His ERA was 3.80 with 110 k's, opponents batting .248 against him and his WHIP was 1.31. The Red Sox took my advice... sort of. They did not acquire Carlos Beltran (thank God) but did acquire Eric Bedard. Eric Bedard? Really?

Since the 23rd of July Matt Garza has won 4 games, dropped 3, now with an 8-10 record. Once again, I must remind you all that this is taking place in Chicago. Since that time, he has managed to bring his ERA down from 3.80 to 3.51. He has added 69 more k's, for a total of 179. Opponents are batting .249 against him and his WHIP is 1.29. Nothing much has changed. He's been a steady, reliable pitcher for the Cubs, kind of what the Red Sox needed to add to their rotation.

Since coming to Boston, Eric Bedard has started 6 games (32 innings) for the Red Sox. His record is 1-2 with a 3.66 ERA. Opponents are hitting .256 against him and his WHIP is 1.38 with 32 k's. There is a key point I would like to make here that reflects directly on the reliability of Bedard. As I just mentioned, he has started 6 games for Boston: a total of 32 innings pitched. That averages out to 5 1/3 innings pitched per outing. Barely getting into the 5th is NOT what the Sox were hoping to get from their pitching staff.

For a completely fair comparison - I neglected to post the 1 game Bedard pitched in Seattle after my July 23rd post and before being traded. He pitched on the 29th for 1.1 innings against Tampa Bay. He gave up 3 hits and 5 runs. I am actually being kind not bringing that into the argument - but it is worth mentioning before I move forward - as this was the last game he played before going on the 15 day DL.

Matt Garza, since July 23rd has started in 11 games. He has pitched 73 innings and that averages out to 6 2/3 innings per outing. Simple deductive reasoning states: deeper into the game means less wear and tear on your bullpen. Less wear and tear means they will be healthier for a longer run. Healthier pitchers for a longer run means more likely to be deeper in the playoffs.

Where do we sit right now? The Red Sox are strapped with injuries, losing their once firm grip on the Wild Card. Their pitching staff is showing signs of age and lack of conditioning. Their farm system is obviously not as deep as it is billed to be. There is plenty of blame to go around and fingers to point if this ship does indeed sink. I think the first finger needs to be pointed at Theo Epstein. His shortsightedness has been a major reason this team is flailing in the wind, hoping to be able to grasp onto the Wild Card. Then, as it stands, they get to run their tired, depleted team into Detroit and get sliced up by (Cy Young, MVP to be) Justin Verlander and Co.

As I stated the other day; the season is not over yet. I do think the Red Sox will manage to win the American League Wild Card; I'm just not sure it will do them any good.

Sox Need Pitching, Not Beltran

Here we are again folks, the July trading deadline and for once, it would appear that the Boston Red Sox do not "need" to do anything to improve their team.

Now, I say that partially in jest; no matter who you are, you always can improve your team. However, this particular Red Sox lineup is the best it has been in many years. As of Saturday morning, the Red Sox are first in Runs Scored, first in doubles, first in RBI's, first in team average, first in team OBP, first in slugging percentage, first in OPS and first in extra base hits. They are second in hits with 942, behind only the Texas Rangers whom have 945. They are also second in winning percentage, behind only the Philadelphia Phillies.

I think then it is safe to say that offense is not an issue at this point. Pitching, in my opinion, is the one thing that should be addressed by the trade deadline. Clay Buccholz may not be coming back this season. If he does, will he be the same dominant pitcher that he started the season as? Does Theo & Co. want to roll the dice on that issue? My guess is no. Assuming that this team will be in the playoffs (anyone care to argue that?) the rotation is key. Jon Lester, though not winning pretty, is winning. Josh Beckett looks like the Beckett of 2007. That leaves the question, who is your number 3 if Buccholz cannot return to form? John Lackey has (dare I say this) pitched well over his last 3-4 starts. Do you want to trust him? Tim Wakefield is not an option. Felix Doubront, if healthy, might have been an option. So where do the brass turn?

There is no Cliff Lee available this year. True, a few compelling names have been mentioned, like Ubaldo Jimenez, but a) at what cost? and b) WHY is he available? The Colorado Rockies have Jimenez in a team friendly contract and are in the midst of a playoff run. Why give up a young arm on a team that is perpetually competitive? These are a few obvious questions that come to mind. However, if you look at his production, this year he has not been anywhere near as good as 2010. Moving to a large market like Boston might result in another Eric Gagne type of pitcher. There are several quality pitchers available on the trade market, such as Jeff Francis in Kansas City, Francisco Liriano in Minnesota and even Carlos (once upon a time I was an ace) Zambrano in Chicago. None of these guys would get it done in Boston.

The name that I think would make the most impact on this Boston Red Sox roster is one that many columnists and sports radio hosts have consistently shot down, but I personally believe would have the biggest impact on this ball club: Matt Garza. Theo Epstein has a history of going after players that perform well against his team (see Keith Foulk, Julio Lugo, Carl Crawford as examples) and Matt Garza has been a nemesis to the Red Sox for years. He always plays big in big situations including 2 playoff wins in 2008 to kill the Sox hopes of repeating as World Series Champions. Sure, he is 4-7 this season, but keep in mind the fact that he is playing for the Chicago Cubs. Do I really need to say any more than that? Though his record is dismal, he is still posting a 3.80 ERA with 110 k's, opponents batting only .248 against him and a WHIP of 1.31.

In comparison to the Red Sox pitching staff (using pitchers that have started 15 or more games: Lester, Beckett and Lackey) - Garza would stack up as follows: 3rd on the team in ERA, tied for 1st in Strike Outs, 3rd in Batting Average Against and 3rd in WHIP. With a team as good as the Sox behind him, I can only imagine his ERA going down and WINS going up. The man can play. True he is only 27 and under contract with the Cubs until 2013, which is precisely why they would not want to trade him. Theo has been known to make some pretty impactful deals in his time as GM - so even though this idea is not being heavily promoted, I see this as one of the most likely things to happen. The question is, what would you be comfortable giving up in order to get a Matt Garza?