5 AL Players to Watch in 2012

There can be no ying without the yang, no Cheech without the Chong, no.... alright, you get the picture. I already profiled 5 NL players to keep your eye on in 2012 yesterday. The time has come to check out their AL counterparts and see what talent is out there. With no further adieu:

Austin Jackson - Detroit Tigers

When the Tigers decided to let Curtis Granderson go after the 2009 season, many people wondered if perhaps they should have considered picking up another center fielder "just in case" the young Jackson would not be able to handle the pressure of the big leagues.

Handle the pressure he did indeed. He came in 2nd in AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2010 posting a .293 batting average with a .345 OBP and an even .400 SLG to give him an OPS of .745... pretty impressive for a rookie. He played in 154 games and offered the Tigers a player who could get on base and provided some speed on the base paths (stealing 27 bags in 2010, 22 in 2011.)

What I like the most about Jackson is the fact that he seems to have filled in for Granderson without missing a beat. This says a lot considering they are two different styles of baseball player. The best part for Detroit? Jackson is under team control until 2016, and not arbitration eligible until 2013.

Matt Weiters - Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles have themselves a blessing behind the plate. While most teams fight for quality catchers, the O's have developed their own in Matt Weiters. While only 25 years old, Weiters has played in 3 seasons and has already made his first All-Star team (2011) with a shiny Golden Glove to match.

Weiters has been on the radar of many baseball insiders since his minor-league days. While many teams have tried to lure the O's in to trading him away, ownership has seen the value that the young catcher has to offer their team. In his short career, Weiters is showing glimpses of brilliance. The numbers he has put up in his first three seasons remind me incredibly of Pudge Rodriguez - a little bit of power, dependability at the plate and a decent batting average. Sure, Pudge would go on to be a career .296 hitter, but in his first three seasons he posted a .265 BA, while Weiters is on the same path, with an identical .265 career BA.

Now, I'm not saying that Weiters is going to be the next Pudge, but he sure could be. Like Pudge's breakout 1994 season, I think Weiters will share the same success in 2012.

Michael Pineda - Seattle Mariners

If you've been reading me for a while you know that Pineda was my mid-season selection to be the AL MVP. I think the man is a beast. Pitching behind King Felix is no easy task, especially in a win-deprived Mariners organization.

Sorry Seattle, I know you're a baseball town. It's just been awhile.

However, Pineda is a bonafied Major League Pitcher and all I needed for proof was how well he handled his game in 2011. He posted a 3.74 ERA and a WHIP of only 1.099, which to me negates his 9-10 record. It is worth mentioning that his WHIP was good enough for 14th overall in 2011, behind a laundry list of 13 All-Stars and some future Hall of Fame players. No other rookie ranked higher. That says a lot to me.

The man is only 22 years old and proved in his first year he could pound the cheese. 2012 will allow him to prove his dominance in a week AL West.

Mike Moustakas - Kansas City Royals

Mike Moustakas was wildely considered to be the best third base prospect in Major League Baseball going into the 2011 season. While many (myself included) thought perhaps the Royals would use him as trade bait, they wisely decided to hold on to this young stud and ended up utilizing him in 2011 for 89 games.

While his numbers were less than impressive in 2011, all scouting reports indicate that this kid has the stuff to be a solid Major League third baseman. By many accounts, this may be my longest of shots as far as young talent goes. While in the minors, Moustakas was dominant. He showed excellent defensive flashes with an ability to get on base with a little bit of power.

Sure, playing in Kansas City might make it a little difficult to tangibly see the numbers to back up the development of this particular player. However, he is one to use your eyeball test on. From what I have seen on him play, the kid has a bright future. He is only 23 and still very wet behind the ears. It looks (doesn't it always) as though the Royals are trying to be competitive again in 2012, making a couple of minor moves that included trading away Melky Cabrera for pitching. Perhaps they think players like Moustakas will provide the offense their lineup would otherwise be missing with Cabrera's departure. Time will tell.

Last but not least....

Ivan Nova - New York Yankees

Look, I really didn't want to talk about any major market teams for this particular article, but looking at what Nova did for the Yankees in 2011, it is hard NOT to take a look at him.

As a Red Sox fan, I sat back at the start of the 2011 season and scoffed at the Yanks, rolling out "this Nova kid" in their rotation against the formidable offenses in the AL East. Yet, "this Nova kid" managed to put up a 16-4 record with a 3.70 ERA and a 1.331 WHIP. Last I checked, that worked out to be better than the Red Sox starting 5. While sure, Lester may have had a lower ERA and Beckett might have had a lower WHIP - that stat line would have been GLADLY accepted from any of the Boston starting five in 2011.

Nova has me very curious as to what he can do moving forward. Realistically, the man only has 38 games of service in the Majors, but his numbers have been out of this world. By all indication he will continue on the same path in 2012, making the Yankee search for a solid #2 starter behind CC Sabathia null and void. Realistically, they should be seeking a #3, as Nova, in my mind, has the stuff to be called an ace on most staffs, definitely #2 on the Yankees.

SOX: Go Get One of These Pitchers

Baseball has become a young man's game, has it not? It seems as though with the passing of the steroid era older players are less and less dominant in the game as they were a few short years ago.

Look back 10 years ago, 2001. Who were the all-stars of the game? Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Rafael Palmeiro, Manny Ramirez... you get the point. All of the names heading up any of the lists you see there were largely names that had been in the game for awhile. There were exceptions, as there always is, but you seldom saw young men taking over the league.

Fast forward to 2011 and just look at the teams that remain in the League Championship Series. Milwaukee is almost exclusively 20-somethings. The same can be said for Texas. In the playoffs you had a very young Arizona Diamondback team as well. The league is obviously getting younger and though the big market teams (New York, Boston, Chicago etc.) want to go out and overspend for the players that were viable in their 20's, they just are not as durable as ownership's want to believe.

I started thinking about the age of the Boston Red Sox and considered that pitching was a major concern last season. Going into 2012 the team certainly has a lot of question marks. As I mentioned in my previous post, they should explore trades and signings, just not stupid trades or signings. I developed my own little stat sheet and analyzed 3 of my favorite pitchers of all time: Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens and Pedro Martinez. Before you get on me about the fact that all three of these guys pitched for a long time and Clemens was a "steroid guy" allow me to explain myself.

What I did was look at the first five full seasons that each player was in baseball. I then looked at 4 very specific statistics: ERA, Games Started, Innings Pitched and WHIP. Why did I select these particular stats? First of all, ERA and WHIP really tell you the quality of stuff a pitcher is dealing out there. Is he really pounding the cheese or is he just throwing crap? The number of games started and innings pitched I believe to be a testament as to the durability of a pitcher. You want to look at a guy that has the capability of throwing for 200 innings, but doesn't necessarily need to do so. Having said that, I broke down my research into three main categories, my Ryan, Clemens and Martinez columns. From that, I found 5 pitchers that I think could both perform well in Boston, but also be horses in this rotation for 5 or more seasons.

The Nolan Ryan Club

1. Jaime Garcia from the St. Louis Cardinals: First things first, Garcia is only 24 years old. He is signed through the end of the 2011 season for only $437,000. He is concluding his 3rd major league season and has a 3.27 career ERA over 374.1 innings pitched. In that time he has started 61 of the 70 games he has appeared in. His career WHIP is 1.321. As always with young pitching, the question is, why would the Cardinals want to give him up? I think, realistically, the only shot we have of obtaining Garcia is if Albert Pujols walks. If he does, the Red Sox could use Kevin Youkilis as a trade chip (eating some of Youk's team friendly salary if need be.) I'm sure I could come up with other scenarios, but that's not my job.

2. Gio Gonzalez from the Oakland A's: Oakland is like a factory for amazing starting pitching. Billy Beane and company just know what the deal really is. This is a huge factor when looking at Gio Gonzalez. The guy is 26 years old with 4 years of major league experience. He posts a career ERA of 3.93 in 535.1 innings pitched. He has started 89 of the 95 games he has appeared in and has a WHIP of 1.410. True - he is in a pitchers ballpark. Looking at his splits, his away ERA is 4.32 and his WHIP is 1.468. I'm not saying this guy will be front of the rotation pitcher, but he's got good stuff and with the right pitching coach, he could be very good.

The Roger Clemens Club

1. Ricky Romero from the Toronto Blue Jays: Of all five of the pitchers I will list, Romero was the only one with a long term deal in place. Tornoto and John Farrell know their stuff when it comes to pitching, so I doubt the guy would be available. First, in the division would be real tough unless we offered up Lester, Buchholz or Ellsbury perhaps, unless GM Alex Anthropoulos is asleep at the wheel and we trade Kalish for him! Anyways, Romero is only 26 as well with 3 major league seasons under his belt. His ERA is 3.60 in 613 innings pitched. He has started all 93 games he has appeared in and offers a 1.302 WHIP. His contract is through 2015 and is a 5-year deal for $30.05million. I don't think the Jays will part with him, but his numbers are impressive.

The Pedro Martinez Club

1. Ian Kennedy from the Arizona Diamondbacks: YES! The same Ian Kennedy that Red Sox nation booed when he pitched for the Yankees. The kid has got his confidence back pitching in Arizona. It is like somebody flicked a switch that said, "You can be an ace in this league." I mean, 21-4 is impressive, but what I am more impressed with is his career numbers, even though he had some rough years in New York. First he is 26 as well and was signed through 2011 at $423k. He has a career ERA of 3.65 (2.88 in 2011) over 475.2 innings pitched. He has started 77 of the 79 games he has appeared in and has a career WHIP of 1.207. First problem: Scott Boras is his agent. He is going to be looking for ridiculous money IF Arizona lets him get away. Kennedy hits the market, he could fill a nice hole in the Sox rotation.

2. Michael Pineda from the Seattle Mariners: It is no secret that I think this kid is legit. He was my early pick for AL Rookie of the Year. He is only 22 years old with 1 season under his belt. His ERA is 3.74 in 28 games, he started all 28. He pitched 171 innings with a WHIP of 1.099. This dude is a beast. The Sox should do whatever it takes to get this man in town. His splits look good. His ERA goes up to 4.40, but his WHIP only goes up to 1.170. There is a ton of potential in this kid.

Thoughts? Opinions? Things better left unsaid?

Who's Your Rookie of the Year?

In an effort NOT to talk about the Boston Red Sox or the Texas Rangers (no easy task today, considering they are about to embark on what I believe to be a very crucial series in Texas) I have decided to take a look at some of the rookies that have impressed me this year and give my two-cents as to whom (as of this point) I believe should be given the distinct honor of being Rookie of the Year.

In my last post I mentioned Atlanta's Freddie Freeman. Freeman would be a fine choice. He has played in 124 games thus far and is hitting for a nice .293 batting average. (134h/457ab) He has driven in 62 runs and has managed 45 extra base hits (17 of which being the long ball.) He leads all rookies in doubles, with 28. He is not just an offensive player though. This season his ranger factor is a 9.21 while his fielding percentage is at .995. What all of these statistics are telling me is that Atlanta has found their first baseman for many years to come.

For fielders, I find the (no pun intended) field to be a bit short. I look at Freeman's numbers and I am very impressed with what he has accomplished in his young career. There are a couple of other young studs that have played markedly well that deserve some mention here, and still may close out the season strong enough to change my mind. There is second baseman Danny Espinosa in Washington for example. He is more of a defensive liability than Freeman. He posts a 4.77 range factor with a .982 fielding percentage; by no means bad for a rookie, just not as good as Freeman's numbers. At bat, his average is low at .231 (which is still better than Jayson Werth) but he has pop in his swing. He's belted 18 homers this season with 57 RBI's. Needless to say, Washington fans would love to see that type of production coming from Werth.

One last individual that has caught my attention has to be Angels first baseman, Mark Trumbo. Offensively he is putting up the closest numbers of any rookie to Freddie Freeman. Currently he is batting .260 (110h/463 ab) with 23 home runs and 69 RBI's. It is clear to me now why the Angels were not big spenders in the off-season, or rather, felt they could take the hit. It is evident that Trumbo is a major league stud. At first base this season he has a range factor of 9.30 with a fielding percentage of .993 - pretty excellent numbers for a rookie as well.

Now, in case you didn't notice I had some criteria for those players that I felt were worthy above, and it was basic - games played. If a rookie had not played over 100 games this season, I did not even consider them... unless they were a pitcher. Which brings me to my final two names. Of all rookie pitchers, it would be very easy to point out that the New York Yankees, Ivan Nova leads the way with 13 wins and 4 losses. He is posting a 3.97 ERA in the toughest division in baseball and is a vital piece to that Yankee rotation right now. But the problem I have with him is that, well, other than the fact he is a Yankee, is the fact that he is a Yankee. Let me explain. If a rookie pitcher from the Yankees or Red Sox, the two deepest pockets in baseball, were posting those numbers, there is an obvious point that can be made - they have a superior team surrounding them. This idea does not fall deaf on me. I buy it. Which is why I think, though Nova is admittedly having a great season, there is one rookie that remains that I think absolutely deserves the American League Rookie of the Year honor.

The Seattle Mariners Michael Pineda has been dominant. That is a hard thing to be when you play in King Felix's park, but he has been. His 9-7 record with a 3.73 ERA is no indication of the type of pitcher he is. Much like Felix Hernandez - the body of work and the team you are on has to take some consideration. Pineda is in no-mans land, Seattle. He has started 24 games and has pitched 147 innings already - the most for any rookie pitcher. By the way, he also has 148 strikeouts, 28 more than the next rookie in that category. He also maintains a 1.11 WHIP, 15th in all of the majors, first for rookies. Pineda hs been a beast, pure and simple. It is a shame in my eyes to see such a talent on a ballclub that will not give him a shot of winning anything.

Given my argument, I think you already know, but my NL Rookie of the Year would have to be Freddie Freeman. AL Rookie of the Year would be Michael Pineda. Thoughts?