Papelbon is Gone, Time to Fill Some Shoes

Jonathan Papelbon stopped the revolving door of closers in Boston from 2006 through 2011.

During that time frame he managed to rack up 219 saves for the Red Sox. That number obliterates the previous record of saves (132) held by Bob Stanley.

Guess what Boston? That era is over. Time to move on. Time to get going. I've seen a fair amount of people that were upset to see Papelbon go, but on the other hand I have seen far too many people that are actually glad to see him go.

Really? After all the man has done for this town people are already happy he's gone? Let's look back a few weeks and remember, Jonathan Papelbon was one of the good guys in this clubhouse in 2011. He was respectful, accountable, and didn't imbibe in beer and fried chicken.

Having said that, his departure is of no surprise to me. Since my first post regarding the future of the Boston Red Sox I have felt that Papelbon would indeed move on. Of course, we all were aware that he wanted to try and set the market for closers (which he did) and make some big bucks. He never wavered from those intentions. He played it year to year in Boston, getting his money through arbitration. He did exactly what he said he was going to do.

I respect him for that.

The other hard point to make is this: even if the Red Sox were to offer him the same exact contract that the Phillies offered him, Jonathan Papelbon would have left anyway. Not because he didn't like it in Boston. Not because he doesn't like the fans. He would have left because of the mess that is going on here, and not one person can really blame him. He held his stuff together while the team crumbled. He's won a ring here, it was his chance to move on.

I have already made my case for Heath Bell coming in as the next closer for the Red Sox. Since that post I have heard a few objections that I find to be noteworthy. I want to also examine a few other options and arguments that have emerged in light of Papelbon's departure.

First of all, there have been concerns about Heath Bell performing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. This is true. Petco is HUGE. I did Bell a bit of an injustice by not examining his splits accordingly while making my argument for him. Shame on me.

There are other names being floated as potential replacements for Pap. The other three that I personally am hearing the most about are: Daniel Bard, Ryan Madson, and Joe Nathan. The lot of potential replacements actually embody four different routes the Red Sox could take in both structure and progress. Allow me to explain.

Daniel Bard is the player that many thought would just step in when Papelbon left and become the next closer for the Sox. Though I think he is a hell of a pitcher, I think he proved at the end of the 2011 season that he is either a) not ready to be the closer or b) is more suited to be a starting pitcher. I think the answer is b. Though Bard has been working to develop a third pitch, people still believe he could close for the Red Sox. He is the cheapest option and would allow them to set their free agent focus towards other issues. However, 2011 brought forth Bard's career high 5 saves. He's not ready, I promise you this. Thrusting him into the role of closer after how the 2011 season ended will not be a wise move, even if he only makes $500k per season.

Heath Bell makes the most sense. Just read my previous article "For Whom Heath Bell Tolls" for the complete argument, but I want to supplement a couple of points. Looking at his splits for the 2011 season, Bell had a slightly higher ERA on the road (2.15 vs 2.88) but had a lower WHIP (1.195 vs 1.080.) This tells me that though he allowed fewer runners on base on the road, slightly more were apt to score than at home.

The irony is, Papelbon was the exact opposite as a pitcher here. His home ERA was 3.16 while his away ERA was 2.73. His WHIP at home was .957 vs .909 away. Papelbon had a tougher time pitching in Fenway than he did away. It is also worth mentioning that Bell actually closed out a higher percentage of games away from Petco than at home (26 of 27 games away, 28 of 37 games at home.) It is fair to say that Bell's numbers come from his road victories and would be a fairly affordable option for the next 2-3 years.

Ryan Madson is basically Jonathan Papelbon 2.0. The problem with Madson, like Bard, is his lack of experience. The Phillies wisely reneged on their 4 year $44million offer to Madson after realizing he had only closed for 1 full season, racking up 32 saves. He benefited greatly from having Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee in the starting rotation. His home ERA was crazy good: 1.64, while on the road it almost doubled to 3.25. That is a HUGE jump.

Madson's WHIP is also indicative of the luxuries brought forth pitching at home. He posted a 1.121 vs a 1.193 on the road. The Phillies brass realized that 2011 was a solid year for him, but teams will catch on and he could really be exposed in 2012 and beyond. Better to save the money on him and offer it to a player that has proven his abilities over the past several years to perform in a pressure cooker.

Joe Nathan is the last name being floated around and to me, for comical reasons. I've heard the argument that the Red Sox do not want to spend a lot of money on a closer, so they would try to land Nathan on a 1-year deal. Really? The people saying this obviously aren't aware that Nathan earned $12.5million in 2011 and has the cache' to cash in. With 269 career saves, Nathan could easily ask for - and receive - $12million and multiple years, yet people think that the Sox could potential woo him for just one season... at age 36... looking for one last pay day?

The reality is, the argument I have made for Heath Bell previously is still the strongest argument for any closer out there. Would you rather see the Red Sox rest on their laurels and roll out Daniel Bard/Bobby Jenks as your closing committee in 2012, or would you rather have a bonified, high-intensity guy like Bell come in and handle the business in the 9th inning?

Take a deep breath, Boston. As Bob Marley said, everything's gonna be alright.

For Whom Heath Bell Tolls

There is a strong possibility Jonathan Papelbon will be closing games for another team next year. Red Sox Nation needs to prepare themselves for this reality. Fear not though faithful freaks of Fenway, Heath Bell could be the simplest solution to this problem.

If Papelbon is truly intent on setting the market for a closing pitcher, Boston can surely afford not paying for his services. It is true, there is some value to be had in having been able to perform well in the pressure cooker known as Boston. However, overpaying for that luxury is not worth it in my opinion.

Let's take a look back at the stat line for both Heath Bell and Jonathan Papelbon over the past 3 seasons. While a majority of his career was as a set-up man, Bell moved into the the closer role in 2009 and has performed admirably in that time frame.

The first statistic people tend to look at for a closer is the number of saves he provided for his team. Let's get that out of the way. In 2009 Heath Bell had 42 saves (4th in all of MLB) while Papelbon had 38 saves (6th in all of MLB.) In 2010 Heath Bell had 47 saves (2nd in all of MLB) while Papelbon had 37 saves (9th in all of MLB.) Lastly, in 2011 Heath Bell had 43 saves (6th in all of MLB) while Papelbon had 31 saves (18th in all of MLB.) There, the arbitrary number of saves is out of the way. Obviously Heath Bell had more saves in that time frame, but that is not what I am basing my argument on.

I like to look at both WHIP and ERA to examine the true measure of a pitcher. To know how many walks and hits a pitcher gives up per inning pitched is really the nitty gritty of the position. When examining these two pitchers Heath Bell holds the advantage over Papelbon in 2 of the 3 years examined. In 2009 Bell posted a 1.120 WHIP while Papelbon posted a 1.147. Hardly much of a difference just eyeballing it, however, in all of Major League Baseball, Bell finished with the 58th best WHIP among pitchers, Papelbon with the 76th.

In 2010 Bell posted a WHIP of 1.200 and Papelbon posted a 1.269. Again, both numbers seem reasonable for a closer. Again, in all of MLB, Bell finished with a ranking of 130 and Papelbon a ranking of 179 overall. It's crucial to remind you here, these were two of the best closing pitchers in the game.

2011 was the year of Jonathan Papelbon. Sure, he only saved 31 games, but he also did not have that many save opportunities. This is a perfect example as to why I think WHIP is a far better statistic in determining your closer than saves. In 2011 Bell posted a 1.149 while Papelbon put up a .933. Bell finished 127th overall while Papelbon finished 32nd. Lights out.

The last statistic I like to look at is ERA. Of those players that made it on base against these guys, how many crossed the plate? Heath Bell's three years looked like this: 2009/2.71, 2010/1.93, and 2011/2.44. Papelbon's seasons looked like this: 2009/1.85, 2010/3.90, and 2011/2.94.

"Wait a minute... I thought Papelbon was 'Lights Out' in 2011. How come his ERA is higher?"

This is where the complexities of baseball come forth. Papelbon rarely let people on base in 2011, but if runners got on base, they had a pretty good chance of scoring. You can chalk that up to defensive ineptitude if you'd like, though both Boston and San Diego were "middle of the pack" defensively. What this tells me is that once Bell allows runners on, he keeps them from crossing home plate.

The other advantage to selecting Bell as your next closer, he is going to be a hell of a lot cheaper than Papelbon. In 2011, Cinco Ocho commanded $12million in arbitration. He will surely be looking to get a minimum of $15million per year. Heath Bell made $7.5million in 2011. The Red Sox could literally sign up for 4 years of Heath Bell at$30million versus 2 years of Papelbon for the same $30million.

In my eyes, it is a pretty easy decision.

A Couple of Noteworthy Bits

Okay, I usually don't react to baseball news on a dime, but I have come across a couple of things tonight while trolling Twitter that has prompted me to react. First of which being the fact that, according to ESPN Chicago as well as several other sources, new President of Baseball Operations for the Chicago Cubs Theo Epstein gave a "courtesy" call to Ryne Sandberg today to inform him that he was NOT a candidate for the Cubs vacant managerial position.

That is shocking to me.

Ryne, RYNO, Sandberg, one of the greatest Cubs in their storied history is being told to eff off. That is unreal to me and goes against everything I thought Theo & Co. would do. Ryne Sandberg has not been the Hall of Famer banking on getting a managerial position solely on his namesake.

Sandberg has been paying his dues and cutting his teeth managing the Peoria Chiefs in the Midwest League, The Tennessee Smokies in the Southern League, The Iowa Cubs in the Pacific Coast League and most recently the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs. The man is (next to Ernie Banks) Mr. Cub! I guess Epstein is looking to rid the Cubs of all their history, not just the bad. This was shocking to me.

The other bit of news I found interesting involves free agent slugger David Ortiz. He was on 93.7 WEEI sounding off about not having received an offer from the Boston Red Sox yet, saying "I know everybody has priorities, and to be honest with you, I thought I was one of them."

Really, Papi? Really?

It is time to get over yourself. Yes, you are a good hitter. You spent a good portion of the 2011 campaign being more of a distraction to this team than a positive force in the clubhouse and you're surprised less than 24 hours removed from becoming a free agent you haven't received an offer yet? Get over yourself!

It is worth noting that the Red Sox have yet to offer free agent reliever Jonathan Papelbon anything yet either. Papelbon, by many accounts, is a much more sought after free agent this season.

I hate the attitude out of Ortiz this year. Listen, I get it - you want to stay in Boston, but you also want a big contract. Time to pick one. The Red Sox are far better off paying "Ortiz Money" to a guy like Jason Kubel to come in here and DH. He's younger, more versatile, and put up similar numbers to Ortiz in 2011.

I love the Hot Stove - time to see where this all goes!

The Time Has Come

Dustin Pedroia has to emerge as the true leader of the Boston Red Sox. There is no room for debate. From the reports circulating now regarding the true downfall of the 2011 Boston Red Sox, Pedroia is one of only a small handful of players that look to be a bright spot on the organization. Heavy is the head that wears the crown.

In this mornings Boston Globe, Bob Hohler unveiled details surrounding the firing of Terry Francona, drinking in the clubhouse and the general malaise of the Red Sox late in the season. There was no leadership on this team. Those that in the past stepped up for their team sat idly by while disorder and disunion overran the clubhouse.

As a fan, there are many players that I am ashamed of after having read this article. Though I was never a fan of John Lackey, I now have reason to dislike he, Josh Beckett and Jon Lester. As it has been reported previously, questions of drinking in the clubhouse had arisen after the collapse. Now, names are being given. Apparently, Lackey, Lester and Beckett had a habbit of drinking beer, ordering fast-food fried chicken and biscuits, and playing video games during games. They became fat and lazy.

There are no rules against drinking beer, ordering food, or even playing video games in the Red Sox clubhouse. What the trio (occasionally joined by Clay Buchholz) did was violate an unwritten rule of not just baseball, but all competitive team sports: Support your teammates; especially in times of crisis. According to Hohler and his sources, the trio started this routine in late 2010 and on top of continuing this trend in 2011, they also cut back on their exercise regimentation despite appeals from the teams strength and conditioning coach Dave Page.

The one thing I will not agree with or endorse in his article is what Hohler writes about Francona. I believe the air is clear for him. Dealing with players that in essence just gave up on you is by no means an easy task and I feel that part of this article can be taken as kicking the man while he's walking out of town. Terry Francona brought this city two World Series championships and dealt with personalities like no other manager has had to overcome, (insert random Manny Ramirez joke here) while pushing his players forward.

This team needs to be looked at from the top to the bottom and players need to be set free, or traded. There are only four players that I feel entirely comfortable bringing back after having read this article. Jacoby Ellsbury, Alfredo Aceves, Jonathan Papelbon and Dustin Pedroia. Take the "C" off of Jason Varitek's chest. He no longer deserves it. He failed to step up and be the captain. He brushed aside his leadership role and became an observer. As did David Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis. Those three men were all players that I thought very highly of, whose character is now definitely in question in my book.

Speaking of leadership, where was Adrian Gonzalez in all of this? The new poster-child for the Boston Red Sox came off as productive, bust soft. In this market you cannot be soft. Complaining about playing five Sunday night games will not win you over with the Boston fans or media. Sure, you may not have much time invested in this team, but you just got a huge contract and were pretty much granted a key to the city of Boston. You need to be a leader on this team and talk sense into these players that think they can do whatever they want. Not in my city. Not on the team I love.

It is time for Dustin Pedroia to become the official Captain of the Boston Red Sox. Give him the "C" on his chest. Pedroia is quoted as saying, "I just know that playing in Boston, you're required to play your tail off every day to try to win ballgames for this city. That's what hurt so much as a player, that we not only let each other down in the clubhouse but we let the city down." Pedroia gets it. His time has come to be the unenviable voice of the Boston Red Sox. Heavy is the head that wears the crown.