Baseball has become a young man's game, has it not? It seems as though with the passing of the steroid era older players are less and less dominant in the game as they were a few short years ago. Look back 10 years ago, 2001. Who were the all-stars of the game? Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Rafael Palmeiro, Manny Ramirez... you get the point. All of the names heading up any of the lists you see there were largely names that had been in the game for awhile. There were exceptions, as there always is, but you seldom saw young men taking over the league.
Fast forward to 2011 and just look at the teams that remain in the League Championship Series. Milwaukee is almost exclusively 20-somethings. The same can be said for Texas. In the playoffs you had a very young Arizona Diamondback team as well. The league is obviously getting younger and though the big market teams (New York, Boston, Chicago etc.) want to go out and overspend for the players that were viable in their 20's, they just are not as durable as ownership's want to believe.
I started thinking about the age of the Boston Red Sox and considered that pitching was a major concern last season. Going into 2012 the team certainly has a lot of question marks. As I mentioned in my previous post, they should explore trades and signings, just not stupid trades or signings. I developed my own little stat sheet and analyzed 3 of my favorite pitchers of all time: Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens and Pedro Martinez. Before you get on me about the fact that all three of these guys pitched for a long time and Clemens was a "steroid guy" allow me to explain myself.
What I did was look at the first five full seasons that each player was in baseball. I then looked at 4 very specific statistics: ERA, Games Started, Innings Pitched and WHIP. Why did I select these particular stats? First of all, ERA and WHIP really tell you the quality of stuff a pitcher is dealing out there. Is he really pounding the cheese or is he just throwing crap? The number of games started and innings pitched I believe to be a testament as to the durability of a pitcher. You want to look at a guy that has the capability of throwing for 200 innings, but doesn't necessarily need to do so. Having said that, I broke down my research into three main categories, my Ryan, Clemens and Martinez columns. From that, I found 5 pitchers that I think could both perform well in Boston, but also be horses in this rotation for 5 or more seasons.
The Nolan Ryan Club
1. Jaime Garcia from the St. Louis Cardinals: First things first, Garcia is only 24 years old. He is signed through the end of the 2011 season for only $437,000. He is concluding his 3rd major league season and has a 3.27 career ERA over 374.1 innings pitched. In that time he has started 61 of the 70 games he has appeared in. His career WHIP is 1.321. As always with young pitching, the question is, why would the Cardinals want to give him up? I think, realistically, the only shot we have of obtaining Garcia is if Albert Pujols walks. If he does, the Red Sox could use Kevin Youkilis as a trade chip (eating some of Youk's team friendly salary if need be.) I'm sure I could come up with other scenarios, but that's not my job.
2. Gio Gonzalez from the Oakland A's: Oakland is like a factory for amazing starting pitching. Billy Beane and company just know what the deal really is. This is a huge factor when looking at Gio Gonzalez. The guy is 26 years old with 4 years of major league experience. He posts a career ERA of 3.93 in 535.1 innings pitched. He has started 89 of the 95 games he has appeared in and has a WHIP of 1.410. True - he is in a pitchers ballpark. Looking at his splits, his away ERA is 4.32 and his WHIP is 1.468. I'm not saying this guy will be front of the rotation pitcher, but he's got good stuff and with the right pitching coach, he could be very good.
The Roger Clemens Club
1. Ricky Romero from the Toronto Blue Jays: Of all five of the pitchers I will list, Romero was the only one with a long term deal in place. Tornoto and John Farrell know their stuff when it comes to pitching, so I doubt the guy would be available. First, in the division would be real tough unless we offered up Lester, Buchholz or Ellsbury perhaps, unless GM Alex Anthropoulos is asleep at the wheel and we trade Kalish for him! Anyways, Romero is only 26 as well with 3 major league seasons under his belt. His ERA is 3.60 in 613 innings pitched. He has started all 93 games he has appeared in and offers a 1.302 WHIP. His contract is through 2015 and is a 5-year deal for $30.05million. I don't think the Jays will part with him, but his numbers are impressive.
The Pedro Martinez Club
1. Ian Kennedy from the Arizona Diamondbacks: YES! The same Ian Kennedy that Red Sox nation booed when he pitched for the Yankees. The kid has got his confidence back pitching in Arizona. It is like somebody flicked a switch that said, "You can be an ace in this league." I mean, 21-4 is impressive, but what I am more impressed with is his career numbers, even though he had some rough years in New York. First he is 26 as well and was signed through 2011 at $423k. He has a career ERA of 3.65 (2.88 in 2011) over 475.2 innings pitched. He has started 77 of the 79 games he has appeared in and has a career WHIP of 1.207. First problem: Scott Boras is his agent. He is going to be looking for ridiculous money IF Arizona lets him get away. Kennedy hits the market, he could fill a nice hole in the Sox rotation.
2. Michael Pineda from the Seattle Mariners: It is no secret that I think this kid is legit. He was my early pick for AL Rookie of the Year. He is only 22 years old with 1 season under his belt. His ERA is 3.74 in 28 games, he started all 28. He pitched 171 innings with a WHIP of 1.099. This dude is a beast. The Sox should do whatever it takes to get this man in town. His splits look good. His ERA goes up to 4.40, but his WHIP only goes up to 1.170. There is a ton of potential in this kid.
Thoughts? Opinions? Things better left unsaid?
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