Ortiz Should Be Praying for Arbitration

There is a chance that David Ortiz could be back in Boston next season.

The Red Sox have until midnight tomorrow night to offer the slugger arbitration for the 2012 season, which would make David Ortiz mighty wealthy for one season's worth of work. As it stands, Ortiz would make in the area of $14million if he accepted the Sox arbitration offer to bring him back.

The plus side of the equation for Ortiz is that he will be making significant money to do what he has been doing well for so many years in Boston. The down side to accepting arbitration is the fact that the money he would be making is not guaranteed.

This could be cause for concern to Ortiz and his agent.

Let's look back to the 2009 season. Ortiz started off abysmally in April and May. He did not hit his first home run of the season until May 20th against Toronto, at which point he was only batting .210 with a .319 OBP. He finished the season only batting .238 but did manage 28 home runs and 99 RBI's with an OPS of .794 (his lowest ever as a full time player.)

In 2010, his April was as painful to watch as in 2009. While he managed to homer much earlier in this season (April 23rd to be exact) his bat was still a major concern. His batting average at the end of April was a dreadful .143 with an OPS of .524. Once again, he did rebound to have a fine statistical season, but in an arbitration year, he may not get a full season to turn things around.

Both years he was under contract, therefore his money was guaranteed. In an arbitration year, slow starts like in 2009 or 2010 could mean that the Red Sox would entertain the idea of cutting ties with Ortiz and have no obligation to pay him the salary.

On the other hand, if Ortiz opted not to accept arbitration, he likely could find another offer on the market in the 2-year, $14million ballpark. This offer could come from the Red Sox, but if he declines the arbitration I could see the Sox low-balling him with a 2-year deal in the $10million range. In the event he decided to walk away from the Red Sox, he is still considered to be a type-A free agent in the new collective bargaining agreement, so Boston would gladly accept the 2 draft picks that would come in his place.

They then would find another DH in that same $10million range and be quite content.

Though I have made it clear in the past that I believe it is time for the Red Sox to move on from David Ortiz, I do think that it would make sense for both parts to be active in getting an arbitration deal done. While it is more money than what I think Ortiz is worth for a one-year deal, it would be a nice compromise in that the Red Sox could keep him on the roster on a year-to-year basis with no fully vested monetary commitment should his statistics falter.