Papelbon is Gone, Time to Fill Some Shoes

Jonathan Papelbon stopped the revolving door of closers in Boston from 2006 through 2011.

During that time frame he managed to rack up 219 saves for the Red Sox. That number obliterates the previous record of saves (132) held by Bob Stanley.

Guess what Boston? That era is over. Time to move on. Time to get going. I've seen a fair amount of people that were upset to see Papelbon go, but on the other hand I have seen far too many people that are actually glad to see him go.

Really? After all the man has done for this town people are already happy he's gone? Let's look back a few weeks and remember, Jonathan Papelbon was one of the good guys in this clubhouse in 2011. He was respectful, accountable, and didn't imbibe in beer and fried chicken.

Having said that, his departure is of no surprise to me. Since my first post regarding the future of the Boston Red Sox I have felt that Papelbon would indeed move on. Of course, we all were aware that he wanted to try and set the market for closers (which he did) and make some big bucks. He never wavered from those intentions. He played it year to year in Boston, getting his money through arbitration. He did exactly what he said he was going to do.

I respect him for that.

The other hard point to make is this: even if the Red Sox were to offer him the same exact contract that the Phillies offered him, Jonathan Papelbon would have left anyway. Not because he didn't like it in Boston. Not because he doesn't like the fans. He would have left because of the mess that is going on here, and not one person can really blame him. He held his stuff together while the team crumbled. He's won a ring here, it was his chance to move on.

I have already made my case for Heath Bell coming in as the next closer for the Red Sox. Since that post I have heard a few objections that I find to be noteworthy. I want to also examine a few other options and arguments that have emerged in light of Papelbon's departure.

First of all, there have been concerns about Heath Bell performing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. This is true. Petco is HUGE. I did Bell a bit of an injustice by not examining his splits accordingly while making my argument for him. Shame on me.

There are other names being floated as potential replacements for Pap. The other three that I personally am hearing the most about are: Daniel Bard, Ryan Madson, and Joe Nathan. The lot of potential replacements actually embody four different routes the Red Sox could take in both structure and progress. Allow me to explain.

Daniel Bard is the player that many thought would just step in when Papelbon left and become the next closer for the Sox. Though I think he is a hell of a pitcher, I think he proved at the end of the 2011 season that he is either a) not ready to be the closer or b) is more suited to be a starting pitcher. I think the answer is b. Though Bard has been working to develop a third pitch, people still believe he could close for the Red Sox. He is the cheapest option and would allow them to set their free agent focus towards other issues. However, 2011 brought forth Bard's career high 5 saves. He's not ready, I promise you this. Thrusting him into the role of closer after how the 2011 season ended will not be a wise move, even if he only makes $500k per season.

Heath Bell makes the most sense. Just read my previous article "For Whom Heath Bell Tolls" for the complete argument, but I want to supplement a couple of points. Looking at his splits for the 2011 season, Bell had a slightly higher ERA on the road (2.15 vs 2.88) but had a lower WHIP (1.195 vs 1.080.) This tells me that though he allowed fewer runners on base on the road, slightly more were apt to score than at home.

The irony is, Papelbon was the exact opposite as a pitcher here. His home ERA was 3.16 while his away ERA was 2.73. His WHIP at home was .957 vs .909 away. Papelbon had a tougher time pitching in Fenway than he did away. It is also worth mentioning that Bell actually closed out a higher percentage of games away from Petco than at home (26 of 27 games away, 28 of 37 games at home.) It is fair to say that Bell's numbers come from his road victories and would be a fairly affordable option for the next 2-3 years.

Ryan Madson is basically Jonathan Papelbon 2.0. The problem with Madson, like Bard, is his lack of experience. The Phillies wisely reneged on their 4 year $44million offer to Madson after realizing he had only closed for 1 full season, racking up 32 saves. He benefited greatly from having Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee in the starting rotation. His home ERA was crazy good: 1.64, while on the road it almost doubled to 3.25. That is a HUGE jump.

Madson's WHIP is also indicative of the luxuries brought forth pitching at home. He posted a 1.121 vs a 1.193 on the road. The Phillies brass realized that 2011 was a solid year for him, but teams will catch on and he could really be exposed in 2012 and beyond. Better to save the money on him and offer it to a player that has proven his abilities over the past several years to perform in a pressure cooker.

Joe Nathan is the last name being floated around and to me, for comical reasons. I've heard the argument that the Red Sox do not want to spend a lot of money on a closer, so they would try to land Nathan on a 1-year deal. Really? The people saying this obviously aren't aware that Nathan earned $12.5million in 2011 and has the cache' to cash in. With 269 career saves, Nathan could easily ask for - and receive - $12million and multiple years, yet people think that the Sox could potential woo him for just one season... at age 36... looking for one last pay day?

The reality is, the argument I have made for Heath Bell previously is still the strongest argument for any closer out there. Would you rather see the Red Sox rest on their laurels and roll out Daniel Bard/Bobby Jenks as your closing committee in 2012, or would you rather have a bonified, high-intensity guy like Bell come in and handle the business in the 9th inning?

Take a deep breath, Boston. As Bob Marley said, everything's gonna be alright.