Papelbon is Gone, Time to Fill Some Shoes

Jonathan Papelbon stopped the revolving door of closers in Boston from 2006 through 2011.

During that time frame he managed to rack up 219 saves for the Red Sox. That number obliterates the previous record of saves (132) held by Bob Stanley.

Guess what Boston? That era is over. Time to move on. Time to get going. I've seen a fair amount of people that were upset to see Papelbon go, but on the other hand I have seen far too many people that are actually glad to see him go.

Really? After all the man has done for this town people are already happy he's gone? Let's look back a few weeks and remember, Jonathan Papelbon was one of the good guys in this clubhouse in 2011. He was respectful, accountable, and didn't imbibe in beer and fried chicken.

Having said that, his departure is of no surprise to me. Since my first post regarding the future of the Boston Red Sox I have felt that Papelbon would indeed move on. Of course, we all were aware that he wanted to try and set the market for closers (which he did) and make some big bucks. He never wavered from those intentions. He played it year to year in Boston, getting his money through arbitration. He did exactly what he said he was going to do.

I respect him for that.

The other hard point to make is this: even if the Red Sox were to offer him the same exact contract that the Phillies offered him, Jonathan Papelbon would have left anyway. Not because he didn't like it in Boston. Not because he doesn't like the fans. He would have left because of the mess that is going on here, and not one person can really blame him. He held his stuff together while the team crumbled. He's won a ring here, it was his chance to move on.

I have already made my case for Heath Bell coming in as the next closer for the Red Sox. Since that post I have heard a few objections that I find to be noteworthy. I want to also examine a few other options and arguments that have emerged in light of Papelbon's departure.

First of all, there have been concerns about Heath Bell performing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. This is true. Petco is HUGE. I did Bell a bit of an injustice by not examining his splits accordingly while making my argument for him. Shame on me.

There are other names being floated as potential replacements for Pap. The other three that I personally am hearing the most about are: Daniel Bard, Ryan Madson, and Joe Nathan. The lot of potential replacements actually embody four different routes the Red Sox could take in both structure and progress. Allow me to explain.

Daniel Bard is the player that many thought would just step in when Papelbon left and become the next closer for the Sox. Though I think he is a hell of a pitcher, I think he proved at the end of the 2011 season that he is either a) not ready to be the closer or b) is more suited to be a starting pitcher. I think the answer is b. Though Bard has been working to develop a third pitch, people still believe he could close for the Red Sox. He is the cheapest option and would allow them to set their free agent focus towards other issues. However, 2011 brought forth Bard's career high 5 saves. He's not ready, I promise you this. Thrusting him into the role of closer after how the 2011 season ended will not be a wise move, even if he only makes $500k per season.

Heath Bell makes the most sense. Just read my previous article "For Whom Heath Bell Tolls" for the complete argument, but I want to supplement a couple of points. Looking at his splits for the 2011 season, Bell had a slightly higher ERA on the road (2.15 vs 2.88) but had a lower WHIP (1.195 vs 1.080.) This tells me that though he allowed fewer runners on base on the road, slightly more were apt to score than at home.

The irony is, Papelbon was the exact opposite as a pitcher here. His home ERA was 3.16 while his away ERA was 2.73. His WHIP at home was .957 vs .909 away. Papelbon had a tougher time pitching in Fenway than he did away. It is also worth mentioning that Bell actually closed out a higher percentage of games away from Petco than at home (26 of 27 games away, 28 of 37 games at home.) It is fair to say that Bell's numbers come from his road victories and would be a fairly affordable option for the next 2-3 years.

Ryan Madson is basically Jonathan Papelbon 2.0. The problem with Madson, like Bard, is his lack of experience. The Phillies wisely reneged on their 4 year $44million offer to Madson after realizing he had only closed for 1 full season, racking up 32 saves. He benefited greatly from having Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee in the starting rotation. His home ERA was crazy good: 1.64, while on the road it almost doubled to 3.25. That is a HUGE jump.

Madson's WHIP is also indicative of the luxuries brought forth pitching at home. He posted a 1.121 vs a 1.193 on the road. The Phillies brass realized that 2011 was a solid year for him, but teams will catch on and he could really be exposed in 2012 and beyond. Better to save the money on him and offer it to a player that has proven his abilities over the past several years to perform in a pressure cooker.

Joe Nathan is the last name being floated around and to me, for comical reasons. I've heard the argument that the Red Sox do not want to spend a lot of money on a closer, so they would try to land Nathan on a 1-year deal. Really? The people saying this obviously aren't aware that Nathan earned $12.5million in 2011 and has the cache' to cash in. With 269 career saves, Nathan could easily ask for - and receive - $12million and multiple years, yet people think that the Sox could potential woo him for just one season... at age 36... looking for one last pay day?

The reality is, the argument I have made for Heath Bell previously is still the strongest argument for any closer out there. Would you rather see the Red Sox rest on their laurels and roll out Daniel Bard/Bobby Jenks as your closing committee in 2012, or would you rather have a bonified, high-intensity guy like Bell come in and handle the business in the 9th inning?

Take a deep breath, Boston. As Bob Marley said, everything's gonna be alright.

Detroit Rock City

As a Boston Red Sox fan there is a certain (albeit self-serving) feeling of righteousness when the New York Yankees are ousted from the playoffs. Sure, the Red Sox didn't make it to fall ball for 2 seasons in a row. That only matters minimally in this war of ages. What matters is that the Yankees didn't acquire another ring. Phew. I'll bet the Sox brass is breathing easy with that knowledge.

This isn't at all about the Red Sox though. This is about seeing teams emerge and be great in October. This is about Jose Valverde shutting the door on Alex Rodriguez and the New York Yankees. This is about Justin Verlander making everyone realize that he could and should be the AL MVP this season. This is about Austin Jackson coming into his own as a suitable replacement for Curtis (MVP runner-up) Granderson.

This is about Victor Martinez, settling in nicely as a part-time catcher and DH. This is about Doug Fister handling this New York Yankee lineup for four scoreless innings, only allowing 1 run over five innings. This is about Magglio (don't call me washed up) Ordonez going 2 for 3 and showing he's still got it. This is about the magic that October brings out in all of baseball.

What we are witnessing this post season is something that I'm sure Bud Selig is enjoying quite a bit. Of the 8 Division Series teams only 1 would be considered "major market" by many accounts. We are seeing the Arizona Diamondbacks show incredible resilience against a formidable Milwaukee Brewers team. We are seeing the St. Louis Cardinals ride out this wave of amazing baseball that they have been playing since September 1st, taking it to the heavily favored Philadelphia Phillies. We are seeing history in the making.

Tonight should prove to be no exception to that statement. With 2 game five's lined up, this is going to be an epic night of baseball. First, at 5:00pm est we will see the Milwaukee Brewers play host to the red-hot Arizona Diamondbacks. The snakes are hoping to see another Kirk Gibson-esque performance from Ryan Roberts. Justin Upton could solidify himself as a bonified star by becoming an October hero as well. On the other side the Brewers are hoping that the combo of Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder will provide enough offense to rid themselves of those pesky Diamondbacks.

After that, at 8:30pm est we will see the finale' of the Cardinals and Phillies series, capping off the Division Series playoffs with a pitchers dual for the ages; Chris Carpenter against Roy Halladay. Though Carpenter is hosting a 12.00 ERA in the NLDS (he pitched on short rest in game 2) tonight he is on full rest and ready to take on his old compadre' Roy Halladay (3.38 ERA in the NLDS).

I said it on Facebook the other night - I have already made my predictions for the World Series and starting tonight, I think you'll see the Cardinals make their way to play the Texas Rangers for it all. All I know is that I will be tied to my TV tonight for some exciting October baseball.

Hot in the City Tonight!

What a surreal ride it has been for the 2011 Arizona Diamondbacks. At the beginning of the season it was a foregone conclusion that the San Francisco Giants were going to run away with the NL West and go on to possibly repeat as World Series Champions.

Really, what competition would they have? The Padres just lost their biggest star, the Dodgers were a financial disaster, the Diamondbacks were no threat. If anything the Rockies could pose some challenge, right?

On March 30th, Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal gave his predictions for the 2011 season. He stated that the Diamondbacks were below average in every aspect of the game. Who can really blame Rosenthal? After all, the D'backs were coming off of a division worst 65-97 record in 2010. Things looked dismal in the desert and some thought that perhaps manager Kirk Gibson would be out of a job at some point in the 2011 campaign.

Then something changed. They received solid starting pitching and their offense rallied. They played well enough to get things into the hands of their consistent bullpen.

That is exactly how they won Friday night against the reigning NL West Champion San Francisco Giants. It was a fitting scenario. The worst of 2010 versus the best. The Cinderella story versus, well, the Cinderella story. The snakes came together as a team and rallied.

Looking at Arizona's roster there is no name that jumps out at you other than Justin Upton. Somehow they still manage. This team reminds me a lot of the 2010 San Diego Padres (who did miss the playoffs.) They have a desire to win and it has pushed them to the front of the herd. Obviously the end of their story will end differently from that of the 2010 Padres.

I have several friends who do not watch National League Baseball and it saddens me. Teams like the 2011 Arizona Diamondbacks are teams that are loaded with guts and desire while limited on payroll and resources.

As it stands today the D'backs will open up the playoffs facing an imposing Philadelphia Phillies ball club. If ever there was a team assembled to test the resolve of a young, hungry team it would have to be the Phillies. If ever there was a David looking to conquer a Goliath, the Diamondbacks appear to be the team looking to fill those shoes.

Hot 'Lanta

The Atlanta Braves have the most commanding lead in the NL Wild Card race this season, at 8 games. They are 7-3 in their last 10 games, and oh by the way, could be the kryptonite to the Phillies Superman squad.

All season long the Braves have had to listen to the praise given to their NL East counterparts, the Phillies. All season long they have been chasing down the same dynamic lineup. All season long, they've been quietly winning and now, are running away with the Wild Card. Chipper Jones has been playing with a renewed sense of passion after an injury plagued 2010 campaign. Sure his numbers are down against his career statistics, but he no longer has to be "the man" in Atlanta. Long gone are the days of 38 Homeruns, 102 RBI's and a .330 average (2001) - but he now has bats surrounding him in the lineup and depth on this ball club that this blogger hasn't seen since the days of Otis Nixon, David Justice and Ron Gant.

If ever there was a team with an evenly distributed offense, it is the Braves. You have pop in your bats care of Dan Uggla, Brian McCann and still on occasion Chipper Jones. You have great speed and potential from Michael Bourn and Jason Heyward. On top of that, you have a potential Rookie of the Year in Freddie Freeman playing first base.

Though the pitching staff doesn't reverberate quite like the Glavine, Maddux, Smoltz days - having Hudson, Lowe and Jurrjens is not a bad second option. Especially given the defensive capability backing up the pitching staff. As a loyal Boston fan, its hard to come up with a better defensive shortstop than Alex Gonzalez. He is a rock for the Braves infield.

In the home stretch of the 2011 season it is going to be a lot of fun to watch how the Braves and Phillies finish out and even more fun to see these two teams go head to head in the playoffs. As it stands right now the season series is dead even, both teams taking 6 games a piece. They have 2 3-game series remaining in the month of September. One in Philly from 9/5 - 9/7 and then the season finale, in Atlanta from 9/26-9/28.

That is what has fascinated me thus far about this rivalry. Philadelphia has handled all of the other competition, but Atlanta just won't go away. With these teams built as complimentary to one another as they appear to be, a 7-game series is most likely going to happen. In that event I do think we are going to see some rather impressive baseball.