Stop right there. If you are casual baseball fan or not one to give a damn about raw numbers, statistics or the business of baseball - this particular post will not be suited for you. This post is going to examine the problem areas that the 2011 "Best Team EVER" Boston Red Sox have and what can be done to right this ship so that a complete blow up will not be in order.
I am going to throw out names that I believe would work in Boston based on my personal research and eyeball test as to what a player has to offer. I will discuss contracts and I will discuss trades. I will say some unpopular things to the average Red Sox fan. I do this to try and offer up my personal opinion as to the direction this team should take. I openly admit that I don't know everything and some of my ideas may seem ridiculous. Call me on the carpet for it. But, do so with a tangible idea in its place. Having said all of that, let's get down to business.
The 2011 Red Sox faced a few glaring holes down the stretch. It was obvious that the team chemistry was off (this has been confirmed by numerous reports post Terry Francona "firing") as well as player durability and lack of depth, specifically pitching depth. We witnessed this team blow a 9 game lead in the wild card race with 27 games to play in the month of September. All they really needed to do was go out and play .500 baseball and they would have made the playoffs, but that drive was not in them. So let's tear apart this team on several levels. First, I want to examine the free-agents and who to sign, who not to sign.
Alfredo Aceves. There is no doubt in my mind that this man should be given a contract for at least a couple of seasons. He was one of about three players that seemed to want to play in October. In 2011 his contract was only for $675k. What's more, he is only 28 years old. Is there anyone out there who would oppose offering this man an incentive-laden multi-year deal? Realistically speaking, though we may want to spot start him in the rotation, this is your long relief man for the future. Why not a 3-year deal in the $2mil range with a vesting option for a 4th year? What I learned watching Aceves this season was that he wants the ball. It doesn't matter if he throws 90 pitches the night before, he will come out and throw another 80 out of the bullpen the very next night. Any man with that fortitude I want on my team.
Jason Varitek. It is no longer 2005. Jason Varitek is no longer a viable option on this team. Many Sox fans over value what the Captain actually brings to this team. He is Josh Becket's personal catcher. That is pretty much it. Previously, you may have been able to sway me into thinking that we need his keen sense of game calling on this team. Jarrod Saltalamacchia has done a pretty damn good job calling a game on his own. Salty has been under Varitek's tutelage for long enough. We don't need to give the roster spot to a man that might appear in 30 games next year, offer you a .210 batting average and drive in a whopping 11 runs. I appreciate everything that Jason Varitek has done for this team, but his time has passed. Cut him loose.
Tim Wakefield. Timmy is the oldest starting pitcher in Major League Baseball. The appeal of Wake used to be the fact that he was an inning eater on the cheap, at a reoccurring $4mil contract that was pretty much a no-brainer for so many years. The problem is that Wake got old... in 2010, but we still brought him back in 2011 to try and win his 200th game in a Red Sox uniform. That's all fine and well, but it took that man 2 months and 8 starts to finally get that 200th win. The faithful will cheer you down the road when you come back to visit Wake, but again, your time has passed. Cut him loose.
J.D. Drew. I don't want to waste a whole lot of time on J.D. Drew. I hated the signing when we made it. He showed minor flashes of wasted potential, then sat out pretty much the entire last half of the remaining year on his contract. Enjoy your freaky ass hyperbolic chamber.
Jonathan Papelbon. I really want the Red Sox to try and bring Papelbon back. Last year at this time I was of the mindset that we really didn't need him and we could fill his role. While I learned a lot of negative things about other players on this team this season I was really impressed with Papelbon when it came time to answer the bell. If he blew a save he seemingly matured quite a bit and would take all the blame upon himself. Not once this season did I think of him as the jackass dancing around in 2007 with the Bud Light box on his head wearing just boxer shorts. I saw a real personality development in him that I believe to be a step towards a stable, long lasting career as a closer. He has gone on record stating that he wants to set the market for closing pitchers. He may very well do that. I don't think the Sox will over-pay for him and unfortunately, I do think we will lose him on this staff.
David Ortiz. It is time to move on from Big Papi. It is as plain and simple as I can put it. Has he been the greatest clutch performer in Red Sox history? Absolutely. What has he done lately? Yes, he gave the team 29 home runs and 96 RBI's; but he also gave the team a headache. We all seem to forget Ortiz barging in on a Terry Francona press conference, cursing about an RBI that was taken away from him. This team cannot be about individual statistics. This has to be about the team as a whole. Papi, in my opinion is probably more of a problem in the clubhouse than what most will say. At his age, looking for a contract as a one-dimensional ball player is going to be very tough. The league is changing and the DH position needs to be one of versatility, on top of decent offensive numbers. It is time to move on from Ortiz, even if it means facing him 18 times a year in Toronto, New York, Baltimore or Tampa Bay.
Marco Scutaro & Jed Lowire. I think Scutaro has played well enough here to be offered a position on this team for next season. It may not be the starting shortstop position he gets, but at least give him a shot to earn it back before we turn the page and just give the job to (presumably) Jose Iglesias. He played with a lot of heart down the stretch, and for me that goes a long way. As for Jed Lowrie, I am not really sure what to think about him. He has not exactly "made it" yet in baseball, but he seems to have the tools to be an everyday player. Last season I referred to him as a poor-mans J.D. Drew: always nursing an injury, just without the bank account to not care about the game. Lowrie is affordable at $450k, but he may be better suited as a sign and package in a trade to a team looking for some infield help.
Obviously those are not all of the free agents on this ball club, but I feel they might be the most important cogs in this machine. The next piece I want to tackle is the subject of players that I believe should be traded. Again, this may not be popular, but I think these things need to be explored.
Kevin Youkilis. If you know me then you know that Youk is my favorite player on this team. Has been since 2004 (though he shared time with Mike Lowell for awhile.) I mention this to prove a point that I am not singling out players that I don't like or am annoyed by. I am looking at the needs of the team and what corrective measures can be taken. Youk is going in for hip surgery after a season that saw him only play in 120 games. That is 18 more than in 2010 and 16 less than in 2009. What we are seeing with Youkilis is the breaking down of a player before our eyes. He is not geared up to be a third baseman. He has one year left on his contract at a team friendly $12mil which means that there will be teams looking to acquire a solid first-baseman (which at this point in his career, is what Youk really is) for a decent price. You may be able to get some good value in return. I'm sorry Youk, the clock is up.
Josh Becket. He did it again. He let down the fans of Boston by not giving a damn about his routine and just showing up out of shape. Look back to July, read any Boston Red Sox article written the day after Becket pitched. He was consistently in the conversation when it came down the the Cy Young award. Then he got fat and lazy... literally. We thought that Becket would be our big hard-nosed Texan ace, and he was for one great season in 2007. Since then he has been unreliable, inconsistent pitcher that should not be the anchor on this pitching staff.
John Lackey. If I have to explain why Lackey cannot pitch in Boston next season then you really shouldn't be reading this blog at all.
Right about now you are probably thinking I have left this team with a bunch of holes in it. That is true. You may also think I want to go out and spend like crazy on the free agent market. That is not true. I want to mention a few acquisitions that I think might make sense and offer an answer to some of the problems this team is facing.
Free Agents to Consider: Unlike some, I am not enamored with the list of free-agents this season. There are really only a couple that I think would be able to make an impact on this team and fill a few prospective gaps. While looking at free agents, I thought it was imperative to not only look at a players statistics, but also their make up. How well could they perform in a pressure cooker like the city of Boston? It is hard to come up with a long list of names, but this is what I have managed to come up with.
With J.D. Drew finally gone, the Sox need a solid right fielder. I think this team could use a dirt dog, someone who gives it his all every game. I came up with a list of three free agents that I thought would make an immediate impact. First up is Michael Cuddyer from the Minnesota Twins. According to www.baseballreference.com, over the course of 162 games Cuddyer averages a nice .340 on-base percentage, 20 home runs and 82 RBI's. This is not too far off from J.D. Drew's 162 game average of a .384 on-base percentage, 25 home runs and 82 RBI's. The problem with that comparison is that Drew has never played more than 146 games in a season in his entire career. Though Cuddyer is not the picture of health, he has played over 150 games he has played in more games than Drew and would probably be a bit more affordable at presumably $10.5mil per season for what I assume would be a 3-year deal, as Cuddyer is 33 as of today. This is not my favorite option by any means.
Next up would be Cody Ross of the San Francisco Giants. He is only 31 and much more affordable than Cuddyer, making $6.3mil in 2011. His 162 game projections put him at a .323 on-base percentage with 21 home runs and 79 RBI's. He was the unsung hero of the World Series Champion 2010 Giants, but is definitely an injury plagued player as well. Coming to Boston might suit him well, or crush him entirely. Also, not my favorite option.
Back to Minnesota we go with the best right field free agent on the market: Jason Kubel. What is not to like about this guy? First of all, he is only 29 years old. His 162 game projections puts him at a .335 on-base percentage with 22 home runs and 92 RBI's. He made the least in 2011 at $5.250mil and is due for a raise. His play reminds me a lot of Trot Nixon, a guy that Red Sox Nation would absolutely love. The problem is that I really think the Twins are going to sign him no matter what. If he can be bought, we should buy and buy high.
What if those options aren't viable? Then I think the best right field option you have is your left fielder, Carl Crawford. Move Crawford over to right, where is fielding range will not be wasted and go after the best free agent left fielder on the market: Josh Willingham. Oakland won't be able to afford to keep him. With a projected .361 OBP, 27 home runs and 88 RBI's - Willingham would give that added boost of production to the outfield that we were lacking last season while platooning Reddick, Drew, McDonald, etc.
What then should happen to the disaster of a pitching staff? My first concern would be your replacement for Jonathan Papelbon, should he decide to walk. There are two names that I would give serious consideration to and one that I'm up in the air about still. First, I think the best candidate, even on a 2-year deal would be Heath Bell from the Padres. Over the last three seasons he has saved 42, 47, and 43 games respectively. (By the way, in the same time Papelbon has saved 38, 37 and 31 games.) Bell has an explosive personality that would mesh nicely in Boston. He is a little older than Papelbon at 34, but he still has good stuff as his record shows. Christ, he's saving over 40 games a year in San Diego!
My next option to fill an empty closer role would be Jon Rauch from the Toronto Blue Jays. Though he doesn't seem to fit the bill of a closer entirely, I think he has the makeup to be one as he showed at the end of the season in Toronto. Rauch fits into my hypothetical along with my other option, Francisco Rodriguez... K-Rod. I mean, he hasn't come close to touching his 62 saves in 2008, but the man has played well in Anaheim, has handled the big city lights in New York and is now under close watch pitching for the Brewers in the NLCS. He could work as a last resort.
The Non-Free Agents.
Trades and other moves will be an important part of this off season. What the hell are other moves you're probably wondering. First and foremost - let's all agree that Daniel Bard is not the closer of the future for this team. I think it is time to put him in the starting rotation, or at least let him go for a spot in the starting five. He has proven that he's established a third pitch and may very well come back to spring training with a fourth pitch. Let's just put Bard aside with the starters for now, okay?
This team, based on what I've proposed above, will be in need of pitching, a third baseman and perhaps a DH. The first player I thought of when considering pitchers that would perform well in Boston is actually one that I think we don't stand a chance at getting: James Shields from Tampa Bay. First of all, and most glaringly, he is in the same division. Outside of that, Boston would make for a perfect trade partner with Tampa. They seem to like to turn over pitchers before they start to get "too old" like Scott Kazmir or Matt Garza. James Shields is right in line with their thinking there. Also, Shields is arbitration eligable and looks to make $7mil in 2012, $9mil in 2013 and $12mil in 2014. That's big dollars for the small market Rays. If there was a way to pry him off of their hands, he would be an excellent addition to this team. His career ERA is 3.96 with a .533 winning percentage.
Next on my radar is Matt Garza. I called for him to be traded to Boston all year long and I am not going to change that opinion now. Garza is a beast that has proven he can pitch well in the AL East. He can pitch well in big games. He does not crumble under pressure. Seeing as how he is on the Cubs, I think there is a much greater chance of acquiring Garza over Shields and I would be okay with that. Garza finished this season 10-10 for the Cubs with a 3.32 ERA! That is what this team needs, a pitcher that maintains a low ERA and keeps his team in the game so that the offense can win the game for him. I could get over all the spitting.
John Lackey and his terrible contract have to be traded. There is no way that the Sox will just release him, there is too much money at stake. Lackey is still owed a little over $45mil for 3 more years. From what I have heard, the only way to rid yourself of Lackey and his contract (short of eating $45mil) is to trade your trash for another teams trash and allow some players a fresh start. There are only 2 names that really come to mind that could make this deal work. First is Barry Zito for the Giants. He's done next to nothing in San Francisco and may very well be washed up, but he's owed $39mil for 2 more seasons. Other than that, there is Carlos Zambrano for the Cubs. He is owed a little over $37mil for 2 more years in Chicago. I don't really think big Z would perform well under the pressure in Boston, so that one might just be out. However, why not give it a shot with Zito? At the very least it is only 2 years of him and not 3 years of Lackey.
What about bringing Johnny Damon back to DH for this team? He's gonna be looking for 1 more contract and the man can still play. If he comes back here you know people will happy to have him back. Aside from the history, the man can still get on base. He can still hit for power. He can still swipe bags occasionally. He can fill in as a corner outfielder. He can fill in at first base. He fits the profile of the modern DH and I think we should consider it at the very least; especially considering it will probably be for about half of what David Ortiz will be looking for financially.
That leaves us with options for third base. I really only have my eyes set on one player in particular which may very well be a crap shoot or a pipe dream. From what I have been hearing, it seems that other than Jose Reyes, the Mets are looking to do a bit of a fire-sale. This means that David Wright might be available. He is still under contract through the 2013 season with the Mets, but would like nice fielding the hot corner in Fenway. I really have no rational reason for wanting him to play here other than the fact that he could.
This team has a lot of holes. There are a lot of moving pieces and intangibles that we are not privy to. What I have done here is try to come up with viable options for this ball club without sounding over the top. Based on my thoughts, here is what I THINK the 2012 Red Sox could look like on opening day:
Pitchers:
Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard, Matt Garza, James Shields, Alfredo Aceves, Felix Doubront, Michael Bowden, Heath Bell (I have no idea what the other 3 pitching slots would be.)
Catchers:
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Ryan Lavarnway
Infielders:
Adrian Gonzalez, Dustin Pedroia, Jose Iglesias, David Wright, Marco Scutaro, Jed Lowrie
Outfielders:
Carl Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury, Josh Willingham, Mike Aviles, Johnny Damon
So there you have it folks. It is all I can think of right now, but please, comment away, let's hear what the Nation has to say.