Showing posts with label World Series. Show all posts
Showing posts with label World Series. Show all posts

Thursday, October 27, 2011

The Case for Mike Napoli

Every year the fall classic brings out the best in some previously unknown player. Last year, Cody Ross stole the show for the San Francisco Giants. This year, Mike Napoli has proven to be a legitimate big-game player. Going into this World Series I swore that Adrian Beltre would prove to be the MVP of the series. It looks like I may have to eat those words as Napoli is just feeding them to me.

In the 5 games he has played thus far Napoli has compiled the following stat line: 13 at bats (18 total plate appearances), 2 runs scored, 4 hits, 1 double, 2 home runs, 9 runs batted in, 3 walks and he has struck out twice. His batting average is .308 while his on-base percentage is .389. His slugging percentage is .846 and his OPS is 1.235.

What does that all translate into? He is first on the Rangers in OPS, Slugging and OBP. He is 3rd in batting average (2nd if you only quantify players that have played in all 5 games.) I need to repeat this, he has 9 RBI's - that is as many as Michael Young (3), Adrian Beltre (2), Nelson Cruz (2) and Josh Hamilton (2) combined. He has become an offensive machine.

On the other side of the ball - he has not allowed the St. Louis Cardinals to steal a base on him, throwing out all 3 attempts: Allen Craig twice and Jon Jay once.

While Napoli's star is surely shining bright right now, the question is, why haven't we noticed him before? The obvious answer is that he is buried on a team full of offensive and defensive weapons. But, Napoli is single handedly destroying my case for the Texas Rangers needing to/being in the hunt for Albert Pujols. Now, allow me to clarify here, I am not saying that Napoli is as good as Pujols, but what I am saying is that Napoli is good enough to not need Pujols.

First of all, Napoli is only 29 years old. Pujols is 31 - not a huge difference in age, but nevertheless, a difference exists. Napoli is capable of both catching and playing first base as well as DH'ing if need be. Pujols can play first or DH. Those are the plain eyeball examinations of the players, but lets take a quick look at the meat and potatos.

During the 2011 season Mike Napoli's stat line looked like this: 113 games played, 72 runs scored, 118 hits, 25 doubles, 30 home runs, 75 RBI's, 58 walks, .320 batting average, .414 OBP, .631 slugging and 1.046 OPS.

During the 2011 season Albert Pujols' stat line looked like this: 147 games played, 105 runs scored, 173 hits, 29 doubles, 37 home runs, 99 RBI's, 61 walks, .299 batting average, .366 OBP, .541 slugging and .906 OPS.

For arguments sake, Prince Fielders 2011 stat line looked like this: 162 games played, 95 runs scored, 170 hits, 36 doubles, 38 home runs, 120 RBI's, 107 walks, .299 average, .415 OBP, .566 slugging and a .981 OPS.

In 34, and 49 fewer games played respectively, Napoli put up fairly similar numbers to both Pujols and Fielder. Of course, on the free agent market, both of those gentlemen will command big dollars and long term contracts. The Rangers have Napoli arbitration eligable for the 2012 season and he becomes a free agent in 2013. According to SI.com, the average salary for a catcher is $2,160,425.94. The Rangers have something special in Napoli and if they are wise, their biggest signing this off-season could be a nice contract extension for him. Not bad for a guy who was traded to the Blue Jays, stayed there for all of 4 days and was turned around and traded to the Rangers last winter.

After all that, I need to offer up 2 mea culpa's... first, Mike Napoli, not Adrian Beltre will win the World Series MVP. Second, the Rangers do not need, nor will they sign Albert Pujols, they're gonna be just fine without him.


Saturday, October 22, 2011

The Stars at Night are Big And Bright

It's all over now, right? I mean, Texas has been an absolute beast playing at home this season and they've just stolen home field advantage after splitting in St. Louis. True, Josh Hamilton has a hernia that is going to require off-season surgery. That didn't seem to slow him up in game 2 when he drove in a the game tying run in the top of the 9th.

Look, I love the story of the 2011 St. Louis Cardinals as much as the next guy. The problem is, the Cinderella story is going to be all over within the next 3 games, 4 at best. The Texas Rangers went 52-29 at home this season. That is a .642 winning percentage for those keeping score at home.

The drama comes in here: The Cardinals had an identical home and road record, 45-36, or .556 winning percentage. That is damn good. Though the Rangers finished the season with 6 more wins overall, the Cardinals have been the hottest team in baseball since September 1st (that is still playing.)

The fact that Josh Hamilton is injured does not change my opinion of this Rangers team. They are stacked. They have the pitching advantage and offensively they have an advantage over the Cards in all 5 categories that win post-season games: hits - 1599 to 1513, runs scored - 855 to 762, home runs - 210 to 162, team batting average - .283 to .273 and finally OPS - .800 to .766.

Though the Cardinals had a better team ERA during the regular season 3.74 to 3.79 (Texas finishing JUST behind the Cards) - the Rangers pitching staff had more quality starts, 99 to 86 and gave up one less earned run 607 to 608.

Statistics on paper are one thing that can be a measure of how far a team can go. I believe heavily in the natural eyeball test. Texas just looks to be more dominant than the Cardinals. With the series shifting to Texas, and on the heels of a dramatic win, the Rangers have all of the momentum right now. Aside from the fact that I have already predicted the Rangers winning the series, I think its time to make my prediction for the World Series MVP: Adrian (the Red Sox should have resigned me) Beltre.