I know, I know - the season is not over yet. We are not eliminated from a playoff birth. No heads have been called to roll (yet.) But let's be honest, there are several things that will be or SHOULD be changing in the off-season to impact this baseball club. Here is my take on the current state of the nation and the direction they should head in... in no particular order:
DANIEL BARD IS NOT YOUR CLOSER OF THE FUTURE.
Look, I love Daniel Bard. I think he is a hell of a setup man. I don't think he's got that edge that great closers have. Riveira has it. Trevor Hoffman had it. Papelbon has it. Eckersley had it. It is that "eye of the tiger" savoir-faire essence that Bard just does not appear to have. True, it could be the fact that he is still young, but I think a hardened closer shakes off blown saves and does not allow it to rock them. Bard has not proven this to me yet. I have no problem with the Sox resigning Jonathan Papelbon to come back and maintain his closing duties.
TIME TO SAY GOOD-BYE TO SOME FAMILIAR FACES.
Cue the Bob Segar, its time to turn the page. Tim Wakefield, David Ortiz, Jed Lowrie, JD Drew. It's been fun, but the ride is over. I don't think anyone will debate me on JD Drew (contract is up, fingers crossed that Theo is not still crushing on him) or Wake. It was nice to see him get his 200th win, now time to take your ball and go home. What people loved about Wake was his ability to eat innings and save the bullpen. I can't remember the last time he was doing that on a regular basis; aside from the fact that he did not rack up a "W" in the 8 games leading up to his 200th win. Only 2 months of baseball passing by, no big deal.
Jed Lowrie, to me is an underestablished version of JD Drew. Lowrie is often injured without the cashe' (or $14 million per year) contract to back it up. Has he had a couple nice streaks for this team? Sure! But mediocrity and softness will not win you the AL East. He can go on and probably have a nice little career in Houston, Kansas City, Oakland... you get the idea.
The BIG question is Papi. Why do I think it is time to get rid of David Ortiz? Because the money he will be looking for is not worth a one-dimensional player. Looking at the rest of the American League, the DH position is starting to be one of flexibility. With David Ortiz you have a 30/100/.280 guy - which is great - but he can't play the field (effectively) for you. He hits. He slumps. He hits. He will be grossly overpaid. I think we are seeing Kevin Youkilis age right before our eyes. Maybe you make him your DH and find a replacement for 3B. Putting Youk's bat there still gives you 30/100 - but also a .300 hitter that can also play the corner infield positions.
MARCO SCUTARO SHOULD BE BACK.
I did not hate the signing originally of Scutaro. I have had quite the love/hate relationship with him. His defense is not as solid as Alex Gonzalez's was. It is not terrible either though. He has proven over the past 6 weeks to me that he is a gamer. While the pressure has been on this team to win, Scutaro has been a beast at the plate. He is a gamer, he deserves a spot on this team. I would have no problem with him splitting time with Jose Iglesias at shortstop, perhaps being your utility infielder. In theory, he could even take over at third.
THE RED SOX WILL OVERPAY FOR CJ WILSON.
The pitching staff sucks this year. Period. But what can be done about it? The brass has made it known they are tired of swallowing bad contracts. That means we as fans get 2 more years of Lackey. Daisuke may be expendable. Buchholz will be back and healthy next year - but you still are in need of an arm. Who is going to be the hottest free agent left hander? CJ Wilson from the Texas Rangers. Though I understand the argument that his numbers look good because he is in the weak AL West - but I really think this kid has got some solid stuff. He's young. He's a lefty. He will fit in nicely. He will make more money than Lackey and he will be your 4th starter.
CARL CRAWFORD WILL BE FINE.
Carl Crawford will be just fine, stop worrying. I have 2 great examples to offer. First - Josh Beckett came here and sucked his first season in Boston - then in 2007 - BOOM - lights out. The other stellar example - Curtis Granderson. Granderson's first season in New York was dismal. This year, you can make the case that he is the AL MVP. If Crawford has another bad season next year, we can start to worry. Until then, just chill Boston.
JOHN LACKEY WILL STILL BE ON THE TEAM.
Take the gun out of your mouth, I don't like it either.
JASON VARITEK WILL BE BACK FOR 1 LAST SEASON.
El Capitan will be back next year for one last rodeo in town. Why not give him that shot? The catching tandem of he and Saltalamacchia has been excellent. Tek is hitting and maintaining his health, all while showing Salty the ropes. Just imagine how good Saltalamacchia will be after one more season of tutoring from Jason Varitek. That tandem has driven in 90 runs with 27 homeruns... which makes up for the dismal .241 (Salty) and .221 (Tek) batting averages.
ADRIAN GONZALEZ WILL EASILY WIN THE 2012 AL MVP AWARD.
Just watching Gonzalez play has become appointment viewing. Even when he is slumping you have to watch because his swing is so beautiful. His defense is amazing. He is not an asshole (see Manny Ramirez.) The numbers he has put up his first year in Boston are indicative of how well he will do as time moves on. It was only his first year facing American League pitching - next year he will feast on it. Here is his line - .338, 42HR's and 136 RBI's. Let's see how close I get.
JON LESTER WILL WIN 20 GAMES.
Lester has had an off year. Sure, looking at his 15 wins it is hard to say he has had an "off" year - but those of us who watch all of the games, you can see it. He has not been as dominant as he was last year. He is not being called "the best lefty in the American League" this year, as he has been in past. I think next year he will really have a break out season and win 20-21 games, making a strong case for himself as the Cy Young Winner, losing out to Justin Verlander, who will win the CY in back to back years and win 24 games.
JOSH REDDICK WILL BE YOUR RIGHT FIELDER.
As much as I would love, Love, LOVE to see the Red Sox try to trade for Andre Ethier from the Dodgers, I am pretty confident that Reddick has proven himself enough this season to be granted that starting position next season. This may not come without some stiff competition from a healthy Ryan Kalish. Either way, this team will benefit greatly from having both of those talents on the Major League roster - giving an injection of youth and hunger to a lineup that needs just that. We can collectively slam the door on JD Drew's ass on his way out the door.
There you have it, my 10 (not so) bold predictions for the 2012 season. Thoughts from the Nation?