Is tonight "make it or break it" for the Red Sox?

This morning while dropping my daughter off at daycare I was listening to WEEI (sorry Sports Hub, reception isn't that grand in New Bedford) and heard Gerry Callihan boldly proclaim that if Josh Beckett and the Red Sox lose tonight against Tampa Bay - they will not be in the playoffs. I said this was a bold claim, and I truthfully believe it. At first, I found myself agreeing with what Callihan said, but then gave it a bit more thought.

Admittedly the Red Sox have a depleted lineup right now. Going into tonight we already know that Kevin Youkilis will be out nursing a hernia. Jed Lowrie is out busy trying to be the under established JD Drew of the team. JD Drew will be out because he's JD Drew. Ortiz is banged up. Crawford has been sub-par and the pitching staff is depleted. Fear not Sox fans, there is hope both tonight and beyond. Tonight we might see Mike Aviles play third base which is not ideal, but he is a solid defender. Perhaps we could see some of that run prevention that Theo always talks about. We will also see a cooled down Josh Reddick in right field as the righty James Shields will be on the mound for Tampa Bay. It is important to note that this would be the first time Reddick would face Shields.

Let's move past tonight. If the Sox win, they are gaining time and a game... for a day. Tomorrow it is Jon Lester against Jeff Nieman. If we split these two games we are no worse off than we are right now. The big question is Sunday with Tim Wakefield facing David Price who, by the way has dominated every Red Sox batter not named Kevin Youkilis over the past 5 years (Youk has 4 hits in 10 at bats against Price.) I'm a realist. Barring any unforeseen offensive explosions on Sunday the Sox will likely drop that game. I feel real good about Beckett and Lester. Especially Lester, coming off of a terrible outing with a chip on his shoulder. I have a feeling the Sox will leave this series leading the Rays by 4 games in the Wild Card race.

Then what happens? The Red Sox go on to host the 60-88 Baltimore Orioles at home for 4 games. Kicking off Monday with a double header - which is rough after a fierce series with the Rays. Still, I feel better with Lackey and maybe Andrew Miller facing Baltimore over Tampa Bay. While the Red Sox are busy hosting the Orioles for 4 home games, Tampa Bay will be visiting the 90-58 New York Yankees for 4 games. They too have a double header lined up for their series on Tuesday. The Sox then hit the road to close out their season, playing 3 games against those same New York Yankees, whom may have just had a hard fought series with Tampa Bay and whom, its worth mentioning, the (healthy) Red Sox have owned this season. Tampa heads home to start a 3 game series with the 75-74 Toronto Blue Jays. A team that I think is better than their record reflects. The Sox will then head into Baltimore to play their final 3 games of the season as the Rays host the Yankees once again.

Simple math here - the Red Sox are playing a sub-.500 team 7 times before the end of the season. The Rays are playing a sub-.500 team 0 times. Scheduling bodes well for the Red Sox. I do not see any way that the Boston Red Sox will not make the playoffs this season. Sadly though, I'm not sure how far they can make it with their depleted staff. The post season does have a way of bringing normal players into elite status though - just take a look at Cody Ross in San Francisco for example. Maybe this years Cody Ross could be Carl Crawford? Who knows? What I do know is, the Red Sox will be playing baseball in October.