I know, I know - the season is not over yet. We are not eliminated from a playoff birth. No heads have been called to roll (yet.) But let's be honest, there are several things that will be or SHOULD be changing in the off-season to impact this baseball club. Here is my take on the current state of the nation and the direction they should head in... in no particular order:
DANIEL BARD IS NOT YOUR CLOSER OF THE FUTURE.
Look, I love Daniel Bard. I think he is a hell of a setup man. I don't think he's got that edge that great closers have. Riveira has it. Trevor Hoffman had it. Papelbon has it. Eckersley had it. It is that "eye of the tiger" savoir-faire essence that Bard just does not appear to have. True, it could be the fact that he is still young, but I think a hardened closer shakes off blown saves and does not allow it to rock them. Bard has not proven this to me yet. I have no problem with the Sox resigning Jonathan Papelbon to come back and maintain his closing duties.
TIME TO SAY GOOD-BYE TO SOME FAMILIAR FACES.
Cue the Bob Segar, its time to turn the page. Tim Wakefield, David Ortiz, Jed Lowrie, JD Drew. It's been fun, but the ride is over. I don't think anyone will debate me on JD Drew (contract is up, fingers crossed that Theo is not still crushing on him) or Wake. It was nice to see him get his 200th win, now time to take your ball and go home. What people loved about Wake was his ability to eat innings and save the bullpen. I can't remember the last time he was doing that on a regular basis; aside from the fact that he did not rack up a "W" in the 8 games leading up to his 200th win. Only 2 months of baseball passing by, no big deal.
Jed Lowrie, to me is an underestablished version of JD Drew. Lowrie is often injured without the cashe' (or $14 million per year) contract to back it up. Has he had a couple nice streaks for this team? Sure! But mediocrity and softness will not win you the AL East. He can go on and probably have a nice little career in Houston, Kansas City, Oakland... you get the idea.
The BIG question is Papi. Why do I think it is time to get rid of David Ortiz? Because the money he will be looking for is not worth a one-dimensional player. Looking at the rest of the American League, the DH position is starting to be one of flexibility. With David Ortiz you have a 30/100/.280 guy - which is great - but he can't play the field (effectively) for you. He hits. He slumps. He hits. He will be grossly overpaid. I think we are seeing Kevin Youkilis age right before our eyes. Maybe you make him your DH and find a replacement for 3B. Putting Youk's bat there still gives you 30/100 - but also a .300 hitter that can also play the corner infield positions.
MARCO SCUTARO SHOULD BE BACK.
I did not hate the signing originally of Scutaro. I have had quite the love/hate relationship with him. His defense is not as solid as Alex Gonzalez's was. It is not terrible either though. He has proven over the past 6 weeks to me that he is a gamer. While the pressure has been on this team to win, Scutaro has been a beast at the plate. He is a gamer, he deserves a spot on this team. I would have no problem with him splitting time with Jose Iglesias at shortstop, perhaps being your utility infielder. In theory, he could even take over at third.
THE RED SOX WILL OVERPAY FOR CJ WILSON.
The pitching staff sucks this year. Period. But what can be done about it? The brass has made it known they are tired of swallowing bad contracts. That means we as fans get 2 more years of Lackey. Daisuke may be expendable. Buchholz will be back and healthy next year - but you still are in need of an arm. Who is going to be the hottest free agent left hander? CJ Wilson from the Texas Rangers. Though I understand the argument that his numbers look good because he is in the weak AL West - but I really think this kid has got some solid stuff. He's young. He's a lefty. He will fit in nicely. He will make more money than Lackey and he will be your 4th starter.
CARL CRAWFORD WILL BE FINE.
Carl Crawford will be just fine, stop worrying. I have 2 great examples to offer. First - Josh Beckett came here and sucked his first season in Boston - then in 2007 - BOOM - lights out. The other stellar example - Curtis Granderson. Granderson's first season in New York was dismal. This year, you can make the case that he is the AL MVP. If Crawford has another bad season next year, we can start to worry. Until then, just chill Boston.
JOHN LACKEY WILL STILL BE ON THE TEAM.
Take the gun out of your mouth, I don't like it either.
JASON VARITEK WILL BE BACK FOR 1 LAST SEASON.
El Capitan will be back next year for one last rodeo in town. Why not give him that shot? The catching tandem of he and Saltalamacchia has been excellent. Tek is hitting and maintaining his health, all while showing Salty the ropes. Just imagine how good Saltalamacchia will be after one more season of tutoring from Jason Varitek. That tandem has driven in 90 runs with 27 homeruns... which makes up for the dismal .241 (Salty) and .221 (Tek) batting averages.
ADRIAN GONZALEZ WILL EASILY WIN THE 2012 AL MVP AWARD.
Just watching Gonzalez play has become appointment viewing. Even when he is slumping you have to watch because his swing is so beautiful. His defense is amazing. He is not an asshole (see Manny Ramirez.) The numbers he has put up his first year in Boston are indicative of how well he will do as time moves on. It was only his first year facing American League pitching - next year he will feast on it. Here is his line - .338, 42HR's and 136 RBI's. Let's see how close I get.
JON LESTER WILL WIN 20 GAMES.
Lester has had an off year. Sure, looking at his 15 wins it is hard to say he has had an "off" year - but those of us who watch all of the games, you can see it. He has not been as dominant as he was last year. He is not being called "the best lefty in the American League" this year, as he has been in past. I think next year he will really have a break out season and win 20-21 games, making a strong case for himself as the Cy Young Winner, losing out to Justin Verlander, who will win the CY in back to back years and win 24 games.
JOSH REDDICK WILL BE YOUR RIGHT FIELDER.
As much as I would love, Love, LOVE to see the Red Sox try to trade for Andre Ethier from the Dodgers, I am pretty confident that Reddick has proven himself enough this season to be granted that starting position next season. This may not come without some stiff competition from a healthy Ryan Kalish. Either way, this team will benefit greatly from having both of those talents on the Major League roster - giving an injection of youth and hunger to a lineup that needs just that. We can collectively slam the door on JD Drew's ass on his way out the door.
There you have it, my 10 (not so) bold predictions for the 2012 season. Thoughts from the Nation?
My good friend Pat Malley was having technical difficulties posting his reply, so he emailed it to me (always encouraged @ christopherbenvie@gmail.com)and has a lot of great points, thoughts?
ReplyDeleteHere it is:
Ok, the gauntlet has been thrown. I will note that while I said earlier I disagreed wih "almost all" of the predictions, I think a good portion of them are at least partially correct. (Of course their correctness is only derived from my predictions, so take these with a grain of salt as well)
1. Daniel Bard
I agree he may never be a closer. However, there is one way to find out. Let him close some games early next year. He will have this opportunity because... I don't think the Sox will sign Papelbon. He's said himself he views himself as the second-greatest closer still active and wants to set the market for closers. I would guess he signs for 3yr/$42 million or 4yr/$55million. He made $12million this year. Anyone comfortable with those numbers as he ages?? I'm not. My guess for the solution - combo of Bard, Jenks, and another reliever signed this offseason with marginal closing expierence. (Matt Capps, Jon Rauch category)
2. Goodbye to some.
Yes, goodbye to some. Wakefield and Drew for sure. Lowrie? Never. Not that he's great but he's not a FA until 2015 and won't make much in his first arbitration year coming up. Lowrie at $1million? No-brainer. You can't find depth guys that cheap on the open market. I also believe the Sox will be forced to do a 2 year or heavily incentive-laden 1+ option year contract to Papi. Otherwise, their offense is looking rough. Best available 3b this offseason? Wilson Betemit? Jorge Cantu? More like Jorge "we can't do" Cantu. (yikes, sorry).
3. Scoot-Scoot-Scutaro
Maybe. One year deal to team with injury happy Lowrie? I'd be ok with that.
4. CJ Wilson
Hmm, I doubt it. The issue? Money. I know you say, "wait, Malley. What about all that money coming off the books? Cameron, Drew, Papelbon, maybe Papi." It's mostly already spent. Crawford - $5million raise next year. AGon - $17million raise. Pedroia - $2.5 million raise. Lester - $2million raise. That's $26 or so million coming in raises next year from a $162million dollar payroll. Sox arent' going to be going much higher than it is currently. The Nationals, Marlins, Royals will all be wanting to spend top dollar to get Wilson and I know your favorite team (I worry sometimes it's not the Sox) the Rangers won't let him go easily either. The Yanks are also always buzzing. I just don't see it.
5. Crawford.
Will be fine. Case closed.
6. Lackey.
$16million a year for 3 more years says he's going nowhere. It'd be tough to find someone to take him even if you tossed in our top 2 or 3 prospects.... for nothing. No one wants this deal.
7. Tek
He'll be back.... as a bench coach. Lavarnaway and Salty (my new favorite Sox player) will man the catching duties and old man Varitek will groom them. Perfect. We get to stop seeing Varitek's slow bat and non-existent chance of catching base-stealers, yet still get his "wisdom" everyone overreacts to.
8. AGon goes ALMVP
Good chance. I didn't feel like, after his shoulder injury this past offseason, he was ever COMPLETELY healthy. Watch out next year.
9. Lester
I'm worried he'll always throw too many pitches too early in games. His control isn't where it needs to be and that hurts him in games a lot. I certainly hope so.
10. Reddick
Not a chance. Reddick is a 4th OF at best. Kalish is twice the prospect Reddick is and if they don't sign a Cuddyer type, which I think they will, then the job is Kalish's to lose. OF next year- CC, Ells, Cuddyer. With Kalish coming off bench. Reddick gets shipped elsewhere for prospect.
There you have it. Enjoy.
1. Daniel Bard
ReplyDeleteI like the idea of bringing in a Capps or Rauch – though I think Heath Bell might be a better fit for the system if we do part ways with Pap. I’m not so sure leaning on Jenks for anything is a viable option, but he may come back strong.
2. Goodbye to some.
C’mon now, Omar Vizquel is available! No, I totally see what you’re saying, and if it is a heavy incentive laden contract I’m fine with bringing Papi back. True Lowrie is affordable – but his time on the DL is not. I still say cut him loose.
3. Scoot-Scoot-Scutaro
We’re pretty much in agreement!
4. CJ Wilson
I can see them not wanting to spend the money, but the question will be how ugly the season ends. If its bad, and we know its headed that way, they will spend to add depth to the rotation. CJ Wilson, or take a couple steps back and try two low-risk high reward guys, like Edwin Jackson and Brandon Webb?
5. Crawford.
Will be fine. Case closed. Agreement #2! Rock on!!!
6. Lackey.
I would rather kiss a porcupine on the ass than watch 3 more years of Lackey, but I guess I’d better pucker up.
7. Tek
“He'll be back.... as a bench coach. Lavarnaway and Salty (my new favorite Sox player) will man the catching duties and old man Varitek will groom them. Perfect. We get to stop seeing Varitek's slow bat and non-existent chance of catching base-stealers, yet still get his "wisdom" everyone overreacts to.” I actually really, really like this scenario. I honestly, hadn’t even given Lavarnaway a second thought until you said it.
8. AGon goes ALMVP
We agree again!
9. Lester
Wait and see.
10. Reddick
I was riding the expectation that they won’t sign any free agents (for the outfield) this season. If they do pick up Cuddyer I will be very happy with that signing.
God I love talking baseball!!!!
Chris - I agree with much of this. Jed Lowrie will be back, but he is not a ML starting IF, IMO. He is a terrific utility IF and will be in that role with Iglesias taking over at SS. I think the Sox need to go defense first at that spot and Julio is strong with the glove.
ReplyDeleteI think Youk has a few years left and agree Varitek will take a victory lap.
I think Papi will be back as well, and won't break the bank even with a 2 year commitment at 7/8 million per. He's worth hanging onto for his leadership, power and smile.
The biggest point for me is Crawford. While I think he will outperform this years numbers (please god!) he will never be worth what they paid him, and will cost the Sox in the long term. Fenway is built for a power hitting LF, allowing the one spot where a subpar defensive player can be hidden. Putting a speed guy there is a bad play. Not to mention his lineup slot. If you concede Ellsbury/PD/Gonzo are 1/2/3 - Crawford is relegated to hitting 6th?! (behind Youk and Papi). Simply put, spending that cash on a #6 hitting speed guy, wasting his legs in LF was a poor fit. I'm also not convinced he is someone to thrive on the big stage that is Boston. Many players have proven not cut out for that role, and I worry CC might be in that company.
Purely for entertainment purposes, what if.....
ReplyDelete*Jon Lackey has some type of severance agreement met at the end of the season. Sure, we'll have to pay some money, but maybe there is a way....
*Daisuke does not come back or is cut/traded. At $7mil per season for a starter, pretty good trade bait... perhaps to a salary strapped Los Angeles Dodgers who will have to pay Andre Ethier big money in arbitration...
*Papelbon walks.
*Wake retires, Tek retires, Bedard and Wheeler walk. We resign Scutaro, rather he takes his $3million option and comes back, we sign Ortiz.
*Lowrie is used for trade bait, perhaps with Daisuke and or Reddick.
What if all of the above happens and we: sign CJ Wilson, Rich Harden and Heath Bell to bolster the pitching staff. We sign either of the Twin free agents, Kubel or Cuddyer.
The lineup would look like this:
Pitchers:
Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, CJ Wilson, Clay Buchholz and Rich Harden.
Bullpen:
Heath Bell, Bobby Jenks, Daniel Bard, Alfredo Aceves, Felix Doubront
Catcher:
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Infield:
Adrian Gonzalez, Dustin Pedroia, Jose Iglesias, Kevin Youkilis
Outfield:
Carl Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury, Andre Ethier
DH
David Ortiz
Bench:
Marco Scutaro, Mike Aviles, Michael Cuddyer, Ryan Kalish, Ryan Lavarnway.
Batting Order:
1 - Ellsbury
2 - Pedroia
3 - Gonzalez
4 - Youkilis
5 - Ortiz
6 - Crawford
7 - Ethier
8 - Saltalamacchia
9 - Iglesias
Thoughts? Again, just for fun, I have no rationale here whatsoever.