Friday, November 18, 2011

WHAT IF: Torre & LaRussa ARE Being Interviewed For The Sox Gig?

What if this line of "B" list managerial prospects is nothing more than a smoke-screen by the Red Sox front office?

What if, right now, behind closed doors somewhere, Larry Lucchino is on the phone with Tony LaRussa or Joe Torre, trying to convince them that they are the right candidate for the vacant Red Sox job?

What if the first round of interviews was nothing more than pandering, trying to buy time to work a deal with one of these two coaching legends?

Listening to the radio on the way home today I heard these possibilities being tossed around, and it made me curious. Both men have the cache' to want their names kept private in the event that neither landed the position. Torre, being under contract with Major League Baseball, has a bit more at stake than LaRussa, whom is currently retired.

What this would mean for the Red Sox is a bit complicated. First, it would tell you that Ben Cherington is really just a face. He wields no actual power and Larry Lucchino is pulling all of the strings behind the scenes. Why else would he allow Cherington to go through the charade of interviewing candidates for the position that nobody seems all too excited about?

What if the Sox are on the phone with Toronto, offering up Will Middlebrooks and Anthony Ranaudo so that they could offer the managerial job to John Farrell?

I am having a hard time believing that the finalists for the Red Sox managerial job are: Torey Lovullo, Sandy Alomar and Gene Lamont with the outside possibility of Bobby Valentine. I'm not buying it. Something is going on behind the curtain.

I can certainly understand discretion in the selection. The problem is, if any of these conspiracy theories prove correct, what does that tell us about Ben Cherington's role with the team?


AL West Is Now Astro Turf

Last night Major League Baseball Commissioner, Bud Selig, announced that the sale of the Houston Astros from Dayton McClane to a group lead by Houston businessman Jim Crane.

The deal is reportedly for $610 million, which originally was slated to be $680 million, but was discounted because the Astros will be moving to the American League West division starting in 2013.

This takes Texas entirely out of the National League, bringing the Astros into the same division as their state rivals, the Texas Rangers, who play in Arlington. Aside from the elimination of the state of Texas in the National League, this approved sale, and switching of leagues is going to have substantial impact on how the game is both played and managed starting in 2013.

First things first, with Houston joining the American League, that now offers both leagues 15 teams/three 5-team divisions. In having this odd number of teams per league that will force there to be at least one inter-league series going on at a time. There are both pros and cons to this move.

The pros are pretty obvious - you get to expand the audience for every team in Major League Baseball. As a baseball fan, I can personally sit down and watch a game between the Kansas City Royals and Milwaukee Brewers and be perfectly content. Most people can only do that if one of those two teams is their home team. Most, in fact, probably could not name more than 1 or 2 players from teams that they do not see on a regular basis. This is going to change that instantly.

The beautiful thing of this for me, is that while I live in an American League city, people around here are not familiar with truly how good the National League and its players are. There is a sense of superiority in the American League. I mean, it is hard not to think that way with teams like the Yankees and Red Sox in this division.

Now, the spectrum of talent will be eye opening to many. People who have no idea how brilliant players like Justin Upton are, for example, will finally get to see him play, albeit maybe once or twice a season. Those that don't know how Cole Hammels would handle American League batters, be prepared, his day is coming.

The cons - this will force inter-league play every day. To me, I don't see the down side to this. However, there are many American League teams that will feel the pain of it, much like the Boston Red Sox complained about in 2011 - not being able to play their DH in the National League parks. While I think in the long run, Major League Baseball will inevitably turn to the designated hitter across the board, for now, the rules are simple - you play by our rules in our house.

This can lead to the demise of the last of the one-dimensional designated hitters. David Ortiz anyone? Players like Ortiz will have little value in 2013 baseball. He is not the best fielder in the world, so teams would only be looking at him for his bat - something that will only be utilized X amount of times during the season, depending on how many inter-league games are actually played.

This brings back my argument from a week or so ago that the modern DH has to be one of versatility. It is the way baseball is headed, and I think it is the right way to go. While I have a deep appreciation for National League game play, I think that the American League has it right. Let your pitchers worry about pitching, and not being an almost automatic out, and leave the hitting to the position players.

Now, along with the announcement of the sale of the Astros, Selig also announced the addition of 2 wild card teams, starting presumably at the end of the 2012 season. This brings a total of 10 teams into the mix at the end of the season for a shot at going to the World Series. If this isn't incentive for those borderline teams to make moves this off season, I don't know what is.

By all accounts it appears that the 2 wild card teams would have a one game playoff to determine who would move on to play the division champions. This is a fantastic idea. How many times have teams been shafted, specifically in the American League, because one division has been so strong that the wild card gets locked up fairly early on? This gives teams a reason to fight, and I love it.

There we have it folks, Selig changing the game for the better right before our eyes. The landscape is changing. How the game is going to be played is changing. Everything is just going to be getting more and more exciting for the sport of Major League Baseball.


Thursday, November 17, 2011

Red Sox Notes: The Good, The Bad & The Ugly

It appears as though the Red Sox have been making minor headlines in the past 24 hours, here is a look at a handful of notes to satiate the appetite of the Nation.

THE GOOD.

By all accounts, it appears as though the Sox are going to try and address their pitching issues. According to Alex Speier on WEEI.com, the Red Sox met with agent Bob Garber last evening in Milwaukee. Garber represents free agent right-hander Roy Oswalt and left hander C.J. Wilson.

Many have thought that Oswalt would be an instant fit in Boston for the past several seasons. I, for one, would love to see the man come to town. Oswalt would bring with him a career 3.21 ERA and 1.194 WHIP. You could make the argument that since Oswalt has only ever pitched in the NL, his ERA would jump a whole point in his first season in the AL - but would a 4.21 ERA be that bad as a 4 or 5 starter? That is exactly what he would be in a rotation that includes Beckett, Lester and Buchholz at the front of it.

C.J. Wilson is another interesting candidate. Though I think he is a great pitcher, I don't think he would be more than 3rd in your pitching depth chart in Boston. I also fear for how he would react to the pressure that Boston puts on players. He has a career ERA of 3.60 and a WHIP of 1.291, all while playing in the American League.

A case can be made in favor of Wilson in the AL East though. Looking at his splits, he has faced the Yankees 1 time. In that game the Yanks batted .250 against him with a .364 OBP and only a .649 OPS. Wilson faced the Blue Jays once, they hit .412 with a .500 OBP and a 1.206 OPS. He has faced the Red Sox twice. The Sox batted .217 with a .280 OBP and a .541 OPS. He faced the Rays 3 times. They managed a .147 batting average with a .247 OBP and a .526 OPS. In other words, in his 7 games against the AL East, teams batted .256 against him with a .348 OBP and a .730 OPS, largely thanks to the offense provided by the Blue Jays. It appears he could handle his own, who knows?

THE BAD.

Looks like the Red Sox will not be landing the manager many thought would take the place of Terry Francona. The Boston Globe, Boston Herald, ESPN Boston and WEEI are all reporting that Dale Sveum is close to signing with the Chicago Cubs to be their new manager. This throws a kink in the plans of Ben Cherington and Co.

While I was never on board with bringing in Sveum, I was on board with getting a manager in place and allowing this team to move forward. It appears as though there will be a delay in that happening.

From what I have been hearing, Pete Mackanin is out of the race. That leaves Sandy Alomar, Jr., Torey Lovullo and Gene Lamont as the three remaining previously interviewed candidates. In my opinion, Lovullo would then be the clear leader in the clubhouse, but I have been wrong before. Though I would still love to see Ryne Sandberg or Dave Martinez, I think this is Lovullo's job to lose.

THE UGLY (Part 1.)

This is part truth and part speculation. The truth is that the Red Sox have made an offer to David Ortiz. After the offer was extended, Ortiz made it public that he would be willing to allow any other offers made to him to be matched by the Red Sox.

My speculation: Ortiz is not at all happy with the offer the Sox gave him. If you are in the "bring Ortiz back" camp - this may be ugly for you, as he may not be back.

THE UGLY (Part 2.)

Heidi Watney is leaving NESN for a new position with Time-Warner Cable, working for the Lakers. Watney will be missed.




Wednesday, November 16, 2011

The Marlins Mean Business

Regardless of if you like the new logo and uniforms, it is apparent that the Miami Marlins will have more going for them in 2012 than just new colors and a new ballpark.

While still somewhat early in the Hot Stove season, the Marlins keep making headlines in all of the right places. It appears that they are big on the right free agents to develop the team and garner significant attention in their new home.

A few days back, Ken Rosenthal and John Paul Morosi of FoxSports.com reported that the fish offered free agent shortstop Jose Reyes an initial offer of 6 years and $90million to bring his talents to South Beach. On the heels of his 5-year, $37.75million contract that offered him an annual salary of $6.75 million, this new offer is a significant upgrade, with an annual value of $15million. Though many believe that Reyes is looking for $100million from a club to get the deal done. From what I have been hearing, there are only two legitimate suitors for Reyes, the Marlins and the Mets. Let's face it, the Mets won't get anywhere near $100million right now.

An interesting tid-bit about this offer came to light earlier in the week as well. According to The Miami Herald's Chuck Spencer, Marlins current all-star shortstop Hanley Ramirez has no interest in switching positions to make room for Reyes. Though many people perceive Reyes and Ramirez to be friends, that appears to not be the case. More on this in a minute.

More recently, the Marlins have set their sights on arguably the biggest free agent in years, Albert Pujols. According to Yahoo Sports' Tim Brown, the club offered Pujols a 9-year contract, the value of which has not been said. It has also been reported by ESPN.com's Jerry Crasncik that the Marlins brought 10 players to assist in recruiting Pujols in an effort to "make the organizations interest clear."

That's not all. The Marlins have also been after starting pitching, but on a lesser level. It appears they want to lock up their 2 major free agent signings before dedicating money towards pitching. Their name has been floated around Mark Buehrle in recent weeks, which would make for a fine addition to their young pitching staff as a solid number 2 or three behind Josh Johnson.

Another thought I have, based ENTIRELY on speculation. There is no rumors on this, there is no inside information, it is just something I found as interesting last night on Twitter. Ozzie Guillen tweeted the following:

"I think Carlos Zambrano going to kick some behind this year." He then added, "And I hope he prove(s) people wrong."

Would it not be interesting to see the Cubs work a trade that sends Big Z to Miami? I think that Guillen is the type of personality that would get the most out of Zambrano, and the fresh start is obviously needed for the guy. Odds are, the Marlins would require the Cubs to pick up a large portion of his contract, but it would make for a very, very interesting landing spot for him.

Speaking of speculation, and back to the Hanley Ramirez issue. IF the Marlins do decide to sign Reyes, could Reyes move over to third base and be effective if Hanley would not? Would the Marlins then try to trade their previous face of the franchise? I think this all would hinge on how the courting of Reyes and Pujols goes, but I don't think it is as far-fetched of an idea as it may have been in previous years.

The Marlins are in a really good place right now, with excellent young talent in the outfield in Logan Morrison and Mike Stanton. The young pitching staff is bolstered by the young fire-baller, Josh Johnson.

I'm not sure where this Marlins team is headed right now, but by all indication it would be the right direction, and it certainly is going to be entertaining.

Monday, November 14, 2011

A-Rod's Time Has Come... To DH

When the New York Yankees take the field on Opening Day 2012, the team should look a little different.

The time has come for Alex Rodriguez to take over as the primary designated hitter for the Yankees. My argument is one that walks a bit of a fine line, but allow me to make my case.

In 2011 Alex Rodriguez played in the fewest number of games as a full-time major league player in his 18 year career. Think about that for a second, A-Rod has been in the league for 18 years. He is 35 years old. That is a lot of mileage on those legs.

While Rodriguez is the single largest investment that the Yankees have right now (in the middle of a 10-year contract he signed with the Yankees in 2007) that carries an annual average salary of $26.9million. He figures to make $29 million this season, $30million if he hits 30 or more home runs. It is a lucrative deal for a lucrative player. Arguably on of the best to ever play the game. The problem with A-Rod is that he does not appear to pass the eyeball test any longer.

Sure, he had a .973 fielding percentage in 2011, but he also managed to commit 13 errors. Is he the crux of the Yankees problems this off-season? Not at all. Could he help fill another void in the lineup? Absolutely.

I admit, it might call for some creativity on the side of Brian Cashman and Co. There only figure to be 2 bonafied every day third baseman available through free agency: Aramis Ramirez and Wilson Betemit.

Ramirez is obviously the best third baseman on the market. The problem I see with him is that he is 33 years old and is going to command top dollars. Not that paying for a player has ever been an issue for the Yankees, but I see them starting to make some wiser baseball decisions as of late and perhaps giving big money to an older player may not be a priority. Sure, he hit .306 with an OPS of .871 with 26 homers in 2011, but offense is not the problem for the Yanks. Ramirez's .953 fielding percentage in 2011 is no upgrade over A-Rod, and thus, negates the true need for him.

Betemit may not be high on the radar of Yankees fans. After his abysmal stint in New York in 2007 and 2008, Betemit has proven himself to be a solid player at third. He would be a low cost option, but again, no upgrade defensively as he posted a .947 fielding percentage in 2011. If the Yankees were to bring in Betemit again, you might see them sign Eric Chavez to come back and platoon the position.

The real solution that may be viable would be through a trade with the Kansas City Royals.

Going in to the 2011 season the Royals had the single highest rated third base prospect in all of Major League Baseball: Mike Moustakas. Moustakas is only 23 years old and got the call-up to play 89 games this season. That is the entirety of his major league experience. His bat is not there yet, and his fielding percentage was .954 - which is pretty damn good for a kid getting his first licks in the majors. (In his first 63 games in the majors A-Rod posted a .934 fielding percentage.)

The question becomes, why would the Royals trade him? They seem to be re-tooling right now. Just a few days back the Royals traded (former Yankee) Melky Cabrera to the San Francisco Giants to bring in Jonathan Sanchez. What if the Yankees put together a package surrounding A.J. Burnett, a man who has had major issues performing in New York? Burnett flourished in smaller markets like Florida and Toronto. Kansas City might give him the fresh start he needs.

The catch would be that the Yankees would have to eat a majority of his salary so that the low-budget Royals may bite at the offer. This would give an immediate boost to their starting rotation while allowing the Yankees to get a little bit younger in a position that could use it.

It may not be realistic, but it is one viable way for the Yankees to move forward, securing their largest asset for the long run.

Friday, November 11, 2011

Papelbon is Gone, Time to Fill Some Shoes

Jonathan Papelbon stopped the revolving door of closers in Boston from 2006 through 2011.

During that time frame he managed to rack up 219 saves for the Red Sox. That number obliterates the previous record of saves (132) held by Bob Stanley.

Guess what Boston? That era is over. Time to move on. Time to get going. I've seen a fair amount of people that were upset to see Papelbon go, but on the other hand I have seen far too many people that are actually glad to see him go.

Really? After all the man has done for this town people are already happy he's gone? Let's look back a few weeks and remember, Jonathan Papelbon was one of the good guys in this clubhouse in 2011. He was respectful, accountable, and didn't imbibe in beer and fried chicken.

Having said that, his departure is of no surprise to me. Since my first post regarding the future of the Boston Red Sox I have felt that Papelbon would indeed move on. Of course, we all were aware that he wanted to try and set the market for closers (which he did) and make some big bucks. He never wavered from those intentions. He played it year to year in Boston, getting his money through arbitration. He did exactly what he said he was going to do.

I respect him for that.

The other hard point to make is this: even if the Red Sox were to offer him the same exact contract that the Phillies offered him, Jonathan Papelbon would have left anyway. Not because he didn't like it in Boston. Not because he doesn't like the fans. He would have left because of the mess that is going on here, and not one person can really blame him. He held his stuff together while the team crumbled. He's won a ring here, it was his chance to move on.

I have already made my case for Heath Bell coming in as the next closer for the Red Sox. Since that post I have heard a few objections that I find to be noteworthy. I want to also examine a few other options and arguments that have emerged in light of Papelbon's departure.

First of all, there have been concerns about Heath Bell performing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. This is true. Petco is HUGE. I did Bell a bit of an injustice by not examining his splits accordingly while making my argument for him. Shame on me.

There are other names being floated as potential replacements for Pap. The other three that I personally am hearing the most about are: Daniel Bard, Ryan Madson, and Joe Nathan. The lot of potential replacements actually embody four different routes the Red Sox could take in both structure and progress. Allow me to explain.

Daniel Bard is the player that many thought would just step in when Papelbon left and become the next closer for the Sox. Though I think he is a hell of a pitcher, I think he proved at the end of the 2011 season that he is either a) not ready to be the closer or b) is more suited to be a starting pitcher. I think the answer is b. Though Bard has been working to develop a third pitch, people still believe he could close for the Red Sox. He is the cheapest option and would allow them to set their free agent focus towards other issues. However, 2011 brought forth Bard's career high 5 saves. He's not ready, I promise you this. Thrusting him into the role of closer after how the 2011 season ended will not be a wise move, even if he only makes $500k per season.

Heath Bell makes the most sense. Just read my previous article "For Whom Heath Bell Tolls" for the complete argument, but I want to supplement a couple of points. Looking at his splits for the 2011 season, Bell had a slightly higher ERA on the road (2.15 vs 2.88) but had a lower WHIP (1.195 vs 1.080.) This tells me that though he allowed fewer runners on base on the road, slightly more were apt to score than at home.

The irony is, Papelbon was the exact opposite as a pitcher here. His home ERA was 3.16 while his away ERA was 2.73. His WHIP at home was .957 vs .909 away. Papelbon had a tougher time pitching in Fenway than he did away. It is also worth mentioning that Bell actually closed out a higher percentage of games away from Petco than at home (26 of 27 games away, 28 of 37 games at home.) It is fair to say that Bell's numbers come from his road victories and would be a fairly affordable option for the next 2-3 years.

Ryan Madson is basically Jonathan Papelbon 2.0. The problem with Madson, like Bard, is his lack of experience. The Phillies wisely reneged on their 4 year $44million offer to Madson after realizing he had only closed for 1 full season, racking up 32 saves. He benefited greatly from having Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee in the starting rotation. His home ERA was crazy good: 1.64, while on the road it almost doubled to 3.25. That is a HUGE jump.

Madson's WHIP is also indicative of the luxuries brought forth pitching at home. He posted a 1.121 vs a 1.193 on the road. The Phillies brass realized that 2011 was a solid year for him, but teams will catch on and he could really be exposed in 2012 and beyond. Better to save the money on him and offer it to a player that has proven his abilities over the past several years to perform in a pressure cooker.

Joe Nathan is the last name being floated around and to me, for comical reasons. I've heard the argument that the Red Sox do not want to spend a lot of money on a closer, so they would try to land Nathan on a 1-year deal. Really? The people saying this obviously aren't aware that Nathan earned $12.5million in 2011 and has the cache' to cash in. With 269 career saves, Nathan could easily ask for - and receive - $12million and multiple years, yet people think that the Sox could potential woo him for just one season... at age 36... looking for one last pay day?

The reality is, the argument I have made for Heath Bell previously is still the strongest argument for any closer out there. Would you rather see the Red Sox rest on their laurels and roll out Daniel Bard/Bobby Jenks as your closing committee in 2012, or would you rather have a bonified, high-intensity guy like Bell come in and handle the business in the 9th inning?

Take a deep breath, Boston. As Bob Marley said, everything's gonna be alright.

Are the Red Sox Interested in Beltran... as a DH?

I keep reading about how the Boston Red Sox are "favorites" to land Carlos Beltran.

There seems to be a large number of people that believe that Beltran would be a fit for Boston and that he could solve their right field issues. After all, he is a switch hitting, high OPS guy with plus power. What is there not to like about him?

The Red Sox lineup is filled with left handed batters and Beltran would offer the option of batting from either side of the plate. His splits are not too different regardless of which side of the plate he bats from (slight edge to the left side of the plate.) He is a 3 time gold glove winner, 6 time all-star, won the rookie of the year in 1999 and has a couple of silver slugger awards on his resume. In other words, the man is a well decorated outfielder.

Here's the catch, he's 34 years old and is coming off his first healthy season in 3 years. He is a bit of an injury concern if he is playing the outfield on a daily basis.

But what if he isn't?

From what I am hearing the Red Sox have an idea on what David Ortiz's market value is. Though GM Ben Cherington has alluded to ongoing conversations with Ortiz, one would think that the sides are at odds in either compensation or years. The fact of the matter is, Ortiz is 35 years old and can DH, that's it.

It is true that in 2011 Ortiz had another fine season. He played in 146 games, knocked in 29 home runs, scored 84 runs, knocked in 96 while batting .309. His on-base percentage was .398 and his slugging percentage was .554, giving a fantastic OPS of .953. This was accomplished for $12.5million and again, he only DH'd.

Carlos Beltran on the other hand also had a fine season. He played in 142 games, knocked in 22 home runs, scored 78 runs, drove in 84 while batting an even .300. His on-base percentage was .385 while his slugging percentage was .525 giving him an OPS of .910. True, he made $19.3million in 2011, but it was the final year on a lucrative contract he signed back in 2005.

I don't believe Carlos Beltran is looking to "cash in" once again, as I think he is smart enough to know that he doesn't merit another large contract after 3 of the last 4 seasons were injury plagued. What he showed in 2011 is that he still has the ability to play baseball every day and perform well.

I believe Beltran will be looking for the same type of contract that David Ortiz is looking for, both in monetary value as well as years. Though I have heard some ludicrous claims that Beltran will be looking for $18million annually, which, will never happen, I think he is probably in the $12-14million range, right about where Ortiz is now.

The question that begs to be answered by the Red Sox brass is: Are the Red Sox in on Beltran to replace David Ortiz with a more rounded player? Beltran played for six and a half years in New York for the Mets and performed admirably. He was then thrust into a playoff rush in San Francisco where he absolutely crushed it in 44 games batting .323, with an OBP of .369 and a SLG of .551 for an OPS of .920.

I could see the Sox pulling the trigger on Beltran and letting Ortiz walk. This organization needs a bit of a face lift, and sadly that could mean the end of Ortiz's stay in Boston.