Cherington Has Proven Me Wrong

Ben Cherington has proven me wrong in regards to the Boston Red Sox managerial search. Back on October 29th I posted a blog predicting Dave Martinez of the Tampa Bay Rays would take over the reigns in Boston, becoming the Red Sox 42nd manager in club history. It seemed like a solid choice at the time.

Fast forward a couple of weeks and this morning on the Remy Report, Jerry linked to an article posted on ESPN Boston stating that Ben Cherington was quoted as saying "I wouldn't rule out adding another person, but there are no plans to." This was in response to the 5 managerial candidates that the Red Sox are interviewing for the position: Pete Mackanin, Dale Sveum, Sandy Alomar Jr., Torey Lovullo and Gene Lamont.

In my original piece I had written off Sveum as being not "high profile" enough, while I stated that according to information posted by Buster Olney, Torey Lovullo appeared to be staying put in Toronto. Sandy Alomar was number 2 on my list while Pete Mackanin was number 4. Gene Lamont was not even on my radar, which says something considering I listed a total of 17 names that were heavily rumored to be "in" on the position.

Of the remaining five candidates my prediction world has been rocked upside down. I still maintain that I do not find Mackanin or Alomar (as much as I like him) to be the man for the job. Gene Lamont would probably have to fall into the 5 spot for me, considering my lack of consideration beforehand. Dale Sveum does not come across to me as the type of manager that would be able to walk into the Red Sox organization and steer this ship. I do think he would make for a fine manager of the Chicago Cubs.

That leaves Torey Lovullo, a man I had written off because of what appears to have been a bad tip. Why does he appear to be the best fit for this team? First of all, he has been in the Red Sox organization, formerly managing the Pawtucket Red Sox. He is well aware of the expectations fans in Boston have of their team. Secondly, he is an 8-year veteran of Major League Baseball, playing 8 seasons between 1988 and 1999. Third, he is only 46 years old. He is young enough to relate to this team.

Lovullo has been coaching for 10 years, breaking in with the Cleveland Indians organization back in 2001. He has been widely considered a rising star in the managerial ranks, doing a fine job everywhere he has been. Lovullo comes across as a man that can handle the pressure in Boston and be able to handle some pretty significant egos in the process.

So, Ben Cherington you proved me wrong. Dave Martinez is not the next manager of the Boston Red Sox; Torey Lovullo is. That is my final answer and I am sticking to it.

For Whom Heath Bell Tolls

There is a strong possibility Jonathan Papelbon will be closing games for another team next year. Red Sox Nation needs to prepare themselves for this reality. Fear not though faithful freaks of Fenway, Heath Bell could be the simplest solution to this problem.

If Papelbon is truly intent on setting the market for a closing pitcher, Boston can surely afford not paying for his services. It is true, there is some value to be had in having been able to perform well in the pressure cooker known as Boston. However, overpaying for that luxury is not worth it in my opinion.

Let's take a look back at the stat line for both Heath Bell and Jonathan Papelbon over the past 3 seasons. While a majority of his career was as a set-up man, Bell moved into the the closer role in 2009 and has performed admirably in that time frame.

The first statistic people tend to look at for a closer is the number of saves he provided for his team. Let's get that out of the way. In 2009 Heath Bell had 42 saves (4th in all of MLB) while Papelbon had 38 saves (6th in all of MLB.) In 2010 Heath Bell had 47 saves (2nd in all of MLB) while Papelbon had 37 saves (9th in all of MLB.) Lastly, in 2011 Heath Bell had 43 saves (6th in all of MLB) while Papelbon had 31 saves (18th in all of MLB.) There, the arbitrary number of saves is out of the way. Obviously Heath Bell had more saves in that time frame, but that is not what I am basing my argument on.

I like to look at both WHIP and ERA to examine the true measure of a pitcher. To know how many walks and hits a pitcher gives up per inning pitched is really the nitty gritty of the position. When examining these two pitchers Heath Bell holds the advantage over Papelbon in 2 of the 3 years examined. In 2009 Bell posted a 1.120 WHIP while Papelbon posted a 1.147. Hardly much of a difference just eyeballing it, however, in all of Major League Baseball, Bell finished with the 58th best WHIP among pitchers, Papelbon with the 76th.

In 2010 Bell posted a WHIP of 1.200 and Papelbon posted a 1.269. Again, both numbers seem reasonable for a closer. Again, in all of MLB, Bell finished with a ranking of 130 and Papelbon a ranking of 179 overall. It's crucial to remind you here, these were two of the best closing pitchers in the game.

2011 was the year of Jonathan Papelbon. Sure, he only saved 31 games, but he also did not have that many save opportunities. This is a perfect example as to why I think WHIP is a far better statistic in determining your closer than saves. In 2011 Bell posted a 1.149 while Papelbon put up a .933. Bell finished 127th overall while Papelbon finished 32nd. Lights out.

The last statistic I like to look at is ERA. Of those players that made it on base against these guys, how many crossed the plate? Heath Bell's three years looked like this: 2009/2.71, 2010/1.93, and 2011/2.44. Papelbon's seasons looked like this: 2009/1.85, 2010/3.90, and 2011/2.94.

"Wait a minute... I thought Papelbon was 'Lights Out' in 2011. How come his ERA is higher?"

This is where the complexities of baseball come forth. Papelbon rarely let people on base in 2011, but if runners got on base, they had a pretty good chance of scoring. You can chalk that up to defensive ineptitude if you'd like, though both Boston and San Diego were "middle of the pack" defensively. What this tells me is that once Bell allows runners on, he keeps them from crossing home plate.

The other advantage to selecting Bell as your next closer, he is going to be a hell of a lot cheaper than Papelbon. In 2011, Cinco Ocho commanded $12million in arbitration. He will surely be looking to get a minimum of $15million per year. Heath Bell made $7.5million in 2011. The Red Sox could literally sign up for 4 years of Heath Bell at$30million versus 2 years of Papelbon for the same $30million.

In my eyes, it is a pretty easy decision.

Andre Ethier: Fodder for Thought

Even a rational Red Sox fan has his white whale. Listen, over the past few months I have given up my personal pipe dream of a Hanley Ramirez reunion with the Red Sox and in his place I have developed a strong liking for Los Angeles Dodgers right fielder, Andre Ethier.

Here's the kicker though - as much as I acknowledge the fact that Ramirez was never coming back to Boston, there lives a strong possibility that Ethier could come to Boston for the right circumstances. Let's just get a couple of things out of the way, first being that he has publicly stated he would love to end his career with the Arizona Diamondbacks playing with Dustin Pedroia. They played together at Arizona State University and are friends. It is a nice gesture.

Secondly, over the summer Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman wrote an article on Ethier and his displeasure with the Dodgers, stating that he (Ethier) had "Boston in his mind."

This reminds me a lot of the whole Jarred Saltalamacchia thing back when he was with Texas. There were trade rumors that Boston was interested and Salty went on record stating he would love to play here. Fast forward three years and we finally landed him.

The stars could potentially be lining up for an Ethier-to-Boston type of move. Frank McCourt has agreed to sell the Dodgers. This could actually hurt the potential of Ethier coming to Boston. His displeasure with the team stemmed directly back to ownership. However, the Dodgers have taken measures to have suitable replacements for their right fielder (Juan Riveira, Jerry Sands, Tony Gwynn Jr. to name a few.)

There has been rumblings that the team has been looking to move on from James Loney as well, their first baseman. Depending on what the Dodgers view as needs, the Red Sox do have several options they could offer up for Ethier to make a deal work. In my quick glance at the team, the Dodgers have needs in the middle infield as well as possibly the outfield. This could, COULD be a scenario where the Red Sox could base a package around a Jed Lowrie/Ryan Kalish or Josh Reddick deal. The Dodgers ownership might be looking to cut back on some spending while beefing up their offense. A move based in that foundation could be the start of a legitimate trade conversation.

However, on the flip side, the new Dodgers ownership might want to come in with guns blazing. For example, if Mark Cuban buys the team, he could address the needs by adding Pujols, Reyes and C.J. Wilson for the fun of it.

As I stated before, this could be just another pipe dream of mine, but it looks like there is a basis for a conversation to be had. For those unaware - Ethier is only 29. He hits in the .300 range consistently, can average 80 RBI's and 20 home runs and has a career OPS of .843; in other words, he's just the type of player the Red Sox like in right.

Trade Kevin Youkilis for David Wright

Meet Kevin Youkilis, your 32 year old third baseman for the Boston Red Sox. A perennial American League MVP candidate, Youk is entering into the final year of his team friendly contract.

Youk is slated to earn $12million in 2012 with a team option for 2013 of $13million, or, there is a $1million buyout.

In his 7 years of service time, Youkilis has been an All-Star 3 times, won a Gold Glove award and placed 3rd in MVP voting in 2008, 6th in 2009.

In other words, Kevin Youkilis has been pretty damn good for the Boston Red Sox.

Meet David Wright, the 28 year old third baseman for the New York Mets. A perennial National League MVP candidate, Wright is also entering into the final year of his contract.

Wright is slated to earn $15million in 2012 for the Mets, with a team option for 2013 at $16million, or a there is also a $1million buyout.

In his 7 years of service time, Wright has been selected to the All-Star team five times, finished 4th in MVP voting in 2007, 7th in 2008. He has 2 Gold Glove awards to match his 2 Silver Slugger awards.

In other words, David Wright has been pretty damn good for the New York Mets.

Baseball nerds, prepare yourself for a bunch of statistics here: According to Baseball Reference, Kevin Youkilis' 162 game stat line would look something like this: 101 runs, 165 hits, 41 doubles, 3 triples, 23 home runs, 85 base on balls, 98 RBI's, 5 stolen bases (getting caught twice), a .289 batting average, .391 OBP, .492 slugging, .883 OPS and a .967 fielding percentage (at third - .993 overall.)

David Wrights 162 game stat line would look like this: 102 runs, 183 hits, 41 doubles, 2 triples, 27 home runs, 78 base on balls, 106 RBI's, 22 stolen bases (getting caught 6 times), a .300 batting average, .380 OBP, .508 slugging, .887 OPS and a .951 fielding percentage.

What do all those numbers translate in to? Basically, Youkilis has the advantage in triples, walks, less times being caught stealing, OBP and Fielding Percentage. Wright has the advantage in runs, home runs, RBI's, stolen bases, batting average, slugging and OPS. Either side of the scale you look at, the advantages are minimal at best - they are fairly identical players.

The question is, why would the Red Sox want to trade Youkilis for David Wright? The answer is simple, Kevin Youkilis is not capable of playing third base at this stage in his career. The Mets are in need of a first baseman. They also need to shed payroll in any way possible. Though the difference in salary is only roughly $3million for 2012/$3million in 2013, beyond that the Mets would likely be unable to sign Wright back.

Wright is the perfect age to come to Boston and take over for Youkilis at third and bat in the three or five spot on this Red Sox lineup. He is a classy player that does not ever seem to have his name in the papers for negative purposes. It would be a wise move for the Red Sox if they are indeed looking to move on from some of the old familiar faces in town.

Giants Trade Lincecum? For Shame!

The Hot Stove is officially starting to warm up and with that come the trade rumors and speculation of great players being moved or signed. Unrealistic trades are debated among baseball fans across the country and all reason is thrown out of the window.

This morning I read an article on Fox Sports by Jon Paul Morosi asking the question, "Is the Giants' best hope trading Lincecum?" You can read that article here:

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/San-Francisco-Giants-Tim-Lincecum-will-team-trade-ace-110311

From what I have read following that article, Morosi has managed to anger many Giant fans. I don't think that was his intent, and he did bring up several points to argue his case. So, let's take a look at the uproar.

It is a fact that after next season 3 of the Giants top 4 starting pitchers will be free agents: Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and Ryan Vogelsong. Lincecum is a free agent the following year. Looking back at the previous handy work the Giants have done signing pitchers (*ahem* Barry Zito anyone?) it may be wise to think about trading one of your stars now so that you can sign the other three back.

Morosi argues that trading Lincecum would also allow the Giants to spend on a big bat - something that the 2011 team could have used badly down the stretch. Do I think that the Giants (even if they trade away Lincecum) have a shot at Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder? Not unless they are willing to break the bank for them. I guess you can't entirely rule them out, as they did have the 8th highest payroll in MLB in 2011, but an important factor to remember, the Cubs had the 6th highest payroll, and have a need for a first baseman.

Other free agent bats are out there and available for the Giants to scoop up. For example, there is a good chance they could re-sign Carlos Beltran. Bringing back the veteran coupled with a healthy Buster Posey could provide just the offensive pop the Giants lacked last season.

The funny thing I find about the Morosi article is that he does not initially say to trade Lincecum. He talks about trading one of the starting chips, though Lincecum would prove to be the most attractive to many teams if the Giants are looking to acquire offense. It makes sense, financially to explore this option, but it brings up a whole separate argument; do you consider Tim Lincecum to be a Major League "Ace" and if so, how many actual "Aces" are there in baseball?

Think about that for a second. What is an "ace" these days? He is a stopper. A guy that you know is more than likely going to get a "W" for you every five days. These guys are few and far between. CC Sabathia, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Tim Lincecum... other than that - you have a lot of good pitchers out there, but there are many that are hard to label "aces."

So my question for the Giants fans, do you really think trading your "ace" is something General Manager Brian Sabean takes lightly? IF he explores it, which there are no indications of that at this point, it would bring about a slew of young talent and would free up cap space to make another splash in free agency.

A Couple of Noteworthy Bits

Okay, I usually don't react to baseball news on a dime, but I have come across a couple of things tonight while trolling Twitter that has prompted me to react. First of which being the fact that, according to ESPN Chicago as well as several other sources, new President of Baseball Operations for the Chicago Cubs Theo Epstein gave a "courtesy" call to Ryne Sandberg today to inform him that he was NOT a candidate for the Cubs vacant managerial position.

That is shocking to me.

Ryne, RYNO, Sandberg, one of the greatest Cubs in their storied history is being told to eff off. That is unreal to me and goes against everything I thought Theo & Co. would do. Ryne Sandberg has not been the Hall of Famer banking on getting a managerial position solely on his namesake.

Sandberg has been paying his dues and cutting his teeth managing the Peoria Chiefs in the Midwest League, The Tennessee Smokies in the Southern League, The Iowa Cubs in the Pacific Coast League and most recently the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs. The man is (next to Ernie Banks) Mr. Cub! I guess Epstein is looking to rid the Cubs of all their history, not just the bad. This was shocking to me.

The other bit of news I found interesting involves free agent slugger David Ortiz. He was on 93.7 WEEI sounding off about not having received an offer from the Boston Red Sox yet, saying "I know everybody has priorities, and to be honest with you, I thought I was one of them."

Really, Papi? Really?

It is time to get over yourself. Yes, you are a good hitter. You spent a good portion of the 2011 campaign being more of a distraction to this team than a positive force in the clubhouse and you're surprised less than 24 hours removed from becoming a free agent you haven't received an offer yet? Get over yourself!

It is worth noting that the Red Sox have yet to offer free agent reliever Jonathan Papelbon anything yet either. Papelbon, by many accounts, is a much more sought after free agent this season.

I hate the attitude out of Ortiz this year. Listen, I get it - you want to stay in Boston, but you also want a big contract. Time to pick one. The Red Sox are far better off paying "Ortiz Money" to a guy like Jason Kubel to come in here and DH. He's younger, more versatile, and put up similar numbers to Ortiz in 2011.

I love the Hot Stove - time to see where this all goes!

Terry Francona Should Replace Tony LaRussa

Take a good look St. Louis, this is the man that will steer the ship for the Cardinals in the 2012 season.

Sure, I have heard plenty of rumors regarding Terry Francona and what he may do next season. There has been rumblings about Tito joining Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer in Chicago. There has been talk about Tito taking a year off. There has been talk of Tito doing T.V. for a year. I don't think that any of those options are realistic. When it comes down to it, Terry Francona is the perfect candidate to take over for Tony LaRussa.

No matter what, replacing Tony LaRussa is going to be very difficult. I have heard the rumors that third base coach Jose Oquendo is primed to take over for LaRussa. Rumor has it that Pujols will only return to St. Louis if Oquendo is the coach. Guess what? Pujols will return to St. Louis if they give him the best deal.

Period.

Other names that have been floated to take over for LaRussa: batting coach Mark "Big Mac" McGwire as well as Chicago Cubs legend and current AAA coach for the Phillies, Ryne Sandberg. Here is the deal with McGwire, the guy was a hell of a baseball player, albeit with steroids later in his career, but overall, he was a great player. He came out, apologized for taking banned substances and has quietly been trying to gain a positive reputation back in Major League Baseball. I respect that. I just don't see him being ready to take over for a Major League Club yet.

Ryne Sandberg on the other hands, as you know if you've read any of my posts before, I would love to see in Boston. With my Boston argument, I have the same reasoning why he will not be coaching in St. Louis - the Cubs would be foolish NOT to hire him to be the coach in 2012.

Sure, there are other names out there that could replace LaRussa, but not many have as good of a record as Francona posts. While LaRussa coached for 2,728 wins and 2,365 losses over a 35 year career that saw him coach just 3 different teams, the Chicago White Sox, Oakland A's and St. Louis Cardinals. LaRussa chalked up 6 pennants and 3 World Series Titles with his .536 winning percentage.

In his 12 years coaching just 2 Major League clubs (The Phillies and Red Sox), Terry Francona has coached 1,029 wins and 915 losses, or a .529 winning percentage. It is worth noting that while in Boston, Francona had a .574 winning percentage and in that same time frame, LaRussa's Cardinals posted a .554 winning percentage.

Terry Francona will be loved in St. Louis, both by the players (as he is very much a players manager to the end) and by the fans/media. Tito is always very candid and open about his coaching, and in a baseball town like St. Louis, they will love having a guy like Francona whose life IS baseball leading the charge.

If St. Louis manages to bring back Pujols and sign Terry Francona on as their manager in 2012, this team has a legitimate chance of repeating as World Series Champions.