Thursday, December 29, 2011

Matt Garza to the Boston Red Sox Could Happen... Soon

According to MLB Trade Rumors, Matt Garza trade talks are beginning to heat up with three key players in the mix. It is believed that the Red Sox, Yankees andBlue Jays are all trying to acquire Garza from the Chicago Cubs to help bolster their respective starting rotations for 2012.

One of those teams has a slight edge: The Boston Red Sox.

Now, when I say slight, I do mean slight. Compensation has never been finalized for Theo Epstein leaving the Boston Red Sox to join the Chicago Cubs as their President of Baseball Operations. While it is appears to be minimal at this point, it is a matter that needs to be cleared up.

What could transpire in the coming hours and days might actually be a big trade. The Red Sox need another starting pitcher, the Cubs have been relatively quiet and could look to shake things up a little bit before the start of the season.

This is where trading Garza to the Red Sox could make a lot of sense.

While Garza's name has been whirling around the trade rumor winds pretty much since the 2011 season ended, the Red Sox have also had a player who's name has been floating around: Kevin Youkilis. Back on December 8th, I wrote how the Cubs would make for a great trade partner for Youk. That move didn't even whisper the name Garza.

Now, with the Sox possibly close to acquiring, definitely trying to acquire Garza, it is a good time to revisit that basic framework of a deal. Even though Cubs President Theo Epstein is on record as stating that Garza is "exactly type of pitcher we want to build around" those of us in Boston have learned to read between the lines of Theo's rhetoric.

So, to be clear, the pieces that would come to the Red Sox would be Matt Garza and Jeff Baker. The corner stone of a deal with the Cubs would begin with Kevin Youkilis and would probably require young pitching in the form of Anthony Ranaudo and/or Matt Barnes as well as another prospect, potentially in the form of a fielder. Perhaps Garin Cecchini, the 20-year-old 3B prospect (who is considered 12th overall in the Red Sox farm system.)In my previous piece, I threw around the idea of trading Youk to Chicago for a player like Jeff Baker and prospects. Baker has the potential to be a .270/.322/.436 player with a .984 fielding percentage. He would be serviceable while keeping the seat warm for Will Middlebrooks.

It may be a stretch, but in the arms race, it can't hurt to have a leg up on the competition. Furthermore, it is hard to imagine former Red Sox GM Theo Epstein and current GM Ben Cherington not examining any trade possibilities that could strengthen both teams.

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

MLB Trade Rumors: Red Sox Look to Trade with A's for Andrew Bailey

While many MLB trade rumors are floating around baseball's winter meetings,Red Sox fans and A's fans have been paying attention to the rumblings of a possibleAndrew Bailey to Boston trade in the works.

According to Peter Abraham, the Sox and A's are engaged in discussions that would bring Andrew Bailey to Boston in exchange for outfielder Josh Reddick.

While the Red Sox showed interest in acquiring Colorado Rockies closer Huston Street, the Rockies ended up dealing Street to the Padres in exchange for a player to be named later. This resulted in yet another viable closer coming off of the white board for the Red Sox, only intensifying their trade talks with the A's.

For the A's, this move would make a lot of sense. As we all have learned either from reading the book or seeing the film Moneyball, General Manager Billy Beane and company run their team on a tight budget. Bailey was the 2009 American League Rookie of the Year and is arbitration eligible for the first time in his young career. It is expected that he will earn $3.3 million in 2012, a number that the A's likely are not comfortable paying, even for a 27-year-old two-time All-Star.

Bailey, while coming off of his worst season to date, still has a career ERA of 2.07 with a WHIP of 0.954; very attractive numbers to see in a closer.

The trade would make sense for the Red Sox as well. Oakland has a depleted outfield as constituted. David Dejesus has already signed with the Chicago Cubs, and both Coco Crisp and Josh Willingham are free agents. A player like Reddick would make perfect sense for Oakland's system.

Reddick is only 24 years old, not arbitration eligible until 2014 and only made $400k in 2011.

It is likely that this rumor is incomplete, as a trade for Bailey would likely require more compensation than just Josh Reddick. Initial reports had the A's asking for third base prospect Will Middlebrooks as part of the package. That, however, would likely be a deal breaker for the Red Sox, as they view Middlebrooks as their top prospect and third baseman of the future.

If a deal can be hammered out between the two sides, it certainly would be a beneficial move for both organizations. The Red Sox would solve their problem at closer while the A's would have at the very least one solid outfielder in line for the 2012 season.

Sunday, December 4, 2011

Continue....?

Hey PTC Readers,

I have recently started writing for The Bleacher Report (www.bleacherreport.com) and have found that my readership has grown immensely in just the few days I have posted there. I am at a bit of a cross-roads right now. Should I continue on PTC, literally posting the same material that I am posting on the Bleacher Report, or should I use this as a forum for other random baseball thoughts? I'm not sure today and over the next week I shall decide where this is all headed. Either way, your support has been incredible. If you decide to follow me on the Bleacher Report, just search my name or you can follow me on Twitter @PTC_ChrisBenvie for all of my latest posts.

I promise, more to come!
~C

Thursday, December 1, 2011

David Ortiz May DH Somewhere Not Named Boston

David Ortiz has been offered salary arbitration by the Boston Red Sox and he has yet to accept it.

Ortiz has until the December 7th deadline to accept the Sox offer and accept essentially a one-year deal to remain in Boston as the DH. He would likely be making roughly $14million next year, but the deal is not a guaranteed contract.

This could be cause for concern to Ortiz and his agent.

At the start of the 2009 season Ortiz was awful in the months of April and May. He did not hit his first home run of the season until May 20th against Toronto, at which point he was only batting .210 with a .319 OBP. He finished the season only batting .238 but did manage 28 home runs and 99 RBI's with an OPS of .794 (his lowest ever as a full time player.)

2010 started no different than 2009. While he managed to homer much earlier in this season (April 23rd to be exact) his bat was still a major concern. His batting average at the end of April was a dreadful .143 with an OPS of .524. Once again, he did rebound to have a fine statistical season, but in an arbitration year, he may not get a full season to turn things around.

Both years he was under contract, therefore his money was guaranteed. In an arbitration year, slow starts like in 2009 or 2010 could mean that the Red Sox would entertain the idea of cutting ties with Ortiz and have no obligation to pay him the salary.

Ortiz appears hesitant to sign the arbitration offer because he is currently seeking a 3-year deal. I doubt he is going to find that offer in Boston.

There are a few teams that come to mind that may want to utilize Ortiz's service for the next three seasons, but you have to look at the field of suitors and potential landing spots objectively. First of all, every NL team is out of the running.

David Ortiz won't be playing first base any time soon.

His talent is hitting, and only hitting, so wipe 15 teams out of contention. Now comes the issue of money; who can afford David Ortiz? The A's, the Indians, the Twins and Rays all can be counted out of the running, unless he opted for a pay cut. That narrows the field down to 11 possible suitors.

What teams are in need of a DH? You can count out the Yankees, as they have Alex Rodriguez pretty much primed to be the DH, if Jeter doesn't get the job first. The White Sox locked up Adam Dunn to fulfill that role for them. Boston has made it clear they have no interest in bringing him back for 3 seasons. So where is the need?

There are three teams that I believe could be serious suitors for Ortiz.

First, the Toronto Blue Jays have been rumored to have interest in Prince Fielder. I'm not so certain they can afford Fielder, but they are looking to add some offensive protection in the lineup behind Jose Bautista. Ortiz is historically known to be a clubhouse guy and would bring a nice veteran presence to the young Blue Jay squad. He would literally double the production the Jays are getting from their current DH, Edwin Encarnacion as well.

Encarnacion is a career .260 hitter with a .336 OBP, .453 SLG and .789 OPS. Over the past 3 seasons he has homered 13, 21, & 17 times respectively while driving in 39, 51 and 55 runs. For comparison sake, Ortiz is a career .283 hitter with a .378 OBP, .544 SLG and a .922 OPS. Over the past three seasons, he has homered 28, 32, and 29 times respectively while driving in 99, 102, and 96 runs.

Next up is the Baltimore Orioles, a team that I think is more likely to land Ortiz than many think. Having just signed Dan Duquette as their new general manager, I see the O's making a little noise. They are geared up with a young team with a stud catcher, a new/old logo back and in need of some star power to give the team a shot in the arm. Duquette is no stranger to making big signings or acquiring top tier talent (see Manny Ramierez, Pedro Martinez) and that brashness will pay off for him in Baltimore.

While the Orioles are realistically more than just one big signing away from being in the hunt for a World Series, it would be a step for them. This would be a spark to make them more competitive and help to even out the landscape in the harsh American League East.

Lastly, the Seattle Mariners could prove to be a dark horse in the David Ortiz courtship. Here is the deal with Seattle, they have excellent starting pitching, pretty good players on the roster, but they have no significant offensive threats on the team.

The Mariners are another team that has been rumored to have significant interest in Prince Fielder, and they have the cash to sign him. From what I have read on various websites, the Mariners want Prince to DH and not play first, opting to keep Justin Smoak there.

From what I've read, Prince wants to play first base, not DH.

This is why Ortiz would make perfect sense for the Mariners. They would get the slugger they are looking for at the position they are looking for, presumably for considerably less money than what they initially thought they would spend. Locking Ortiz up for those three years would allow the team to build up around him and develop some of their younger talent further, like Justin Smoak.

So Boston fans, don't be surprised to see another Red Sox favorite donning another teams laundry in 2012.