Sunday, April 17, 2011

Where Pujols Fits

Adrian Gonzalez has ruined the market for Albert Pujols. Its true that the season is very young, but Pujols is not off to a prototypical "Pujols" season. If Adrian Gonzalez performs as expected in Boston and outperforms Pujols then it would be really hard for any team not named the Yankees (a presumed non-factor) to shell out $200 million for his services.

Let's assume that there is no blockbuster mid-season trade that sends Pujols elsewhere and he makes it (as expected) to free agency. The question then becomes, "Who will pay for his services?" The list should be short, right? After much debate with a friend of mine, we narrowed the field down to 7 realistic potential suitors. Surprisingly, neither will be the Boston Red Sox or the New York Yankees. Having said that, let's examine those teams that would be willing to shell out the coin (presumably) as well as have the desire to make a splash. As for Pujols, I don't get the vibe that he is all to concerned with staying in St. Louis for the sake of staying in St. Louis. Albert wants to get paid and he wants to win. With those parameters, I offer up these potential suitors for the biggest free agent in recent memory:

St. Louis Cardinals

Obviously the Cardinals need to keep him. The loss of Pujols could prove to be a catastrophic hit to the proud franchise. The signing of Matt Holiday was an attempt to show him that they have the willingness to spend the money to build a winning team around him. They have a new stadium that would be a sad sight if half empty. The loss of the power hitting first baseman could set this team back for years to come. Even if they attempted to fill the gap by becoming major players in the Prince Fielder auction, that would be like trying to sell Jo Jo English as a suitable replacement for Michael Jordan. No disrespect to Prince Fielder, but you catch my drift.

Colorado Rockies

This is my dark horse selection for the race. They are a complete team in many regards, but they have an aging first baseman in Todd Helton with a stud, young lineup that includes Troy Tulowitski, Carlos Gonzalez and Ubaldo Jimenez. The Rockies have never been known to be "big spenders" so to speak, which is why I would love, LOVE to see them in the race for Pujols. Can you just imagine it? At Coors Field Pujols would average 60 home runs, 120 RBI's, post easily a .300 average and be a potential triple crown threat every year. The Rockies would instantly be the team to beat for the next 8 years in the National League.

Anaheim Angels

I don't care how you want to spin it, the Angels were big time losers in the free agent market this past season. They did not get Carl Crawford. They did not get Cliff Lee. They were non-factors and were left with doing what the Angels do best, acquiring big, bad contracts. (See Vernon Wells.) This is a team with the resources and the need to make a big splash to become legitimate contenders in the eyes of the Red Sox and Yankees. Being an American League team, this offers Pujols the option of becoming a DH in the later portion of his contract. That might be an attractive incentive.

Texas Rangers

My American League dark horse. The Texas Rangers have built a reputation of winning under the leadership of Nolan Ryan. I love this organization right now. They wanted to shell out big money for Cliff Lee, who is to say they won't do the same to get Albert Pujols? Being an American League team, again, he will have the option of DH'ing in the later years while being thrust into a winning lineup as constituted. He will have protection in the lineup with the likes of Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler, and possibly a contented DH in Michael Young (assuming he is stuck there through the 2011 season.) This team would instantly be World Series favorites, hands down.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Once again we have to assume that the McCourts will get the legal issues ironed out by the time the free agent frenzy begins next year. If they do, I'm pretty sure they'll do their best to inject some life into this highly talented lineup that is just under performing. I think you'd see them part ways with James Loney and light a fire under Andre Ethier (a personal favorite player of mine) and Matt Kemp. The Dodgers have fallen off from being considered a real threat in the NL and this would definitely give them back their legitimacy. It would also be a huge market for Pujols to make money in on his own... Pujols, Los Angeles...

New York Mets

I know - they are boring. They are broke. They haven't been viable for at least 3 seasons. That's why I can't rule them out. They're in New York. They may be bought out and suddenly find the cash the be a player again. Its New York. Did I mention that? The Mecca of the free world, Pujols could cash in nicely on endorsements etc being in the Big Apple. In the grand scheme, I find this to be the least likely option, but I would hate to not at least through the Mets in the mix. Lastly...

Chicago Cubs

The hated Cubs. This would vilify Pujols in St. Louis as much as LeBron is vilified in Cleveland. Maybe even more. It would be as if Ted Williams came back from war and decided to put on the pin stripes. Magic Johnson really did desire a trade and wound up playing with Bird in Boston. It would be the biggest smack in the face of the St. Louis Cardinals... but that might not be a concern for Pujols. He wants to get paid and he wants to win. The Cubs have Carlos Pena on a one year deal. They need a shot of adrenaline in their lineup. They have money to burn and a drought to end. They're desperate at this point. Don't sleep on the Cubs. They don't make sense across the board, but they may just overpay for Pujols to lure him away from St. Louis and to show their fanbase that they are trying to end their curse.

The field is wide open. There could be some other clubs that want to make a splash that just don't come to mind. But, based on my assessment and much debate... I think you may see Albert Pujols singing, "The stars at night, are big and bright...." Just like his contract, and his future... as a Texas Ranger. You heard it here first.

2 comments:

  1. Excuse my ignorance here...please educate me on this.

    Why is Boston a non-contender? Assuming we don't resign Drew, Ortiz & Cameron - we are dropping $33M+ from the books in 2012; we will be shopping for a DH or a first baseman. We have a future DH in Adrian so I understand that. I can't see them hanging onto Ortiz so they need to plug someone there.

    There will be a lot of holes to fill so I'm interested to see how they do it. Do they shift Adrian to DH and get a serviceable first baseman? Or try to keep the power in the lineup by going after DH?

    Why is he not an option? Is it just the money? Or because we need some more Left-handed batters?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hey Eric,

    You bring up some good points, but what it boils down to is the fact that the Red Sox just don't need him. Gonzales will be a DH... in no sooner than 7 years from now. He is only 28 and is an excellent First Baseman. They wouldn't move him to DH. Pujols is too good of a defensive First Baseman to sign to a lucrative deal to play DH.

    What I think you'll see is the Sox use that money to fill those other gaps. Assuming Ryan Kalish is not your future Right Fielder (he would then definately be your 4th Outfielder, filling one of the 2 gaps) you have a few sexy names that are or may be available come the end of the season: Jason Kubel in Minnesota, Cody Ross in San Fran, Grady Sizemore in Cleveland (but he does have an option on his contract), Josh Willingham in Washington.

    With the Dodgers being financially controlled by MLB, they will be sellers this season, period. That makes a guy (whom I love) like Andre Ethier suddenly available. He'd look real nice in Right.

    Jason Kubel may be the best bet to fill in at DH, which he does part time anyway. He will give you 20+ HR, 90 RBI and .800 OPS annually, which is great DH numbers. It is a slight dip from Ortiz, but he'll also be about a third of the cost. Assuming of course we don't just re-sign Ortiz at a "hometown" discount so he can retire here.

    They'll also have to do some work in their bullpen, per usual. They may also have to shop for a catcher, depending on how Salty pans out.

    All entirely my opinion, but I just see better ways to use that money. Hope that answers your questions!

    ReplyDelete